Maths Question.

[scallop]

Hi. This is probablly pretty basic stuff, but I'm trying to get better at this. Guess this is an appropriate forum.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.815% 37.53% 00.29% 246749928 1891224.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 62.185% 61.90% 00.29% 406992360 1891224.00 { TT+ }

So, AK has 38% equity vs TT+.

Am I right in thinking that if the villian folds this range 13% of the time we are ok with pushing? (Assuming this is his calling range).

So we need 13% Fold Equity?

[Paul Thomson]

I'm very confused... We need other figures here like stack sizes and bets up to the push.

[scallop]

lol yeah i realised that after i posted.

Ok, secneario.

Folds ot me in SB. Botsh stacks 100bb's

I raise to 4bb's. He makes it 14. His range for calling a push is TT+, and we have 38% Equity vs that range.

I push AK. What does my fold equity need to be (and is this simply the % of the time he folds?) for this push to be correct???

[kaby]

ok, so when we push and he always calls, we make ((pot equity*pot) - shove)

(.375*200)-96 = -21$

now we add fold equity, x = the % of time he has to fold (1-x = the times he calls obv)

when he calls we win -21$, when he folds we win 14$

breakeven point:

[(1-x)*((.375*200) - 96)]+x*14=0
[(1-x)*-21]+x*14=0
-21+21x+14x=0
35x=21
x=21/35=.60

he has to fold >60% of the time for your push to be correct

math doublecheck plz? ^^

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
lol yeah i realised that after i posted.

Ok, secneario.

Folds ot me in SB. Botsh stacks 100bb's

I raise to 4bb's. He makes it 14. His range for calling a push is TT+, and we have 38% Equity vs that range.

I push AK. What does my fold equity need to be (and is this simply the % of the time he folds?) for this push to be correct???

[/ QUOTE ]

the answer to your question is
here

There are other posts in the sticky that will explain how to do EV calcs for FE in think they're by fimbulwinter or something like that.

[scallop]

awesome cheers guys

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
when he calls we win -21$, when he folds we win 14$

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. When he folds we make 18, our original raise (4), plus the amount he 3-bet (14). We also need to account for the blinds, but ignoring that for now a 0EV push requires

p = [96 - E(200)] / [18 + 96 - E(200)]

where:
p = fold equity required
E = pot equity versus villain's calling range

So, if he's calling with TT+, our equity is about 38% as you mentioned. Plugging this in for E we get:

p = [96 - (.38)(200)] / [18 + 96 - (.38)(200)]
p = .526

So we need him to fold a little over half the time. This means he needs to be 3-betting more than twice as many hand combos as he's calling with.

[kaby]

thx for the correction ringmaster, i can't believed i forgot that :/

[Ringmaster]

No problem. Your calcs look sound aside from that.