NBA Play (Scoring)

Shadowrun · #1 01-20-2007, 05:25 PM

After winning a sports bet on zach randolph outscoring steve nash by more than 4.5, i decided to look at other bets in the NBA.

One that sticks out to me is

Orlando at New Jersey. I really think they will be OVER 180.5.

Orlando avgs 93.6 points. The nets 97.1 ponts.
Their opposing teams score. 92.5 Orlando and 97.4 for the nets.

I am pretty confident in this bet, but obviously New Jersey could get to a slow start and lose the game 82 to 90 or some other score.

(P.S. My YTD is 1-0 so dont bet this just because some random guy said so)

Shadowrun · #2 01-20-2007, 10:16 PM

Update at the half:

Orlando 48 New Jersey 38

Thoughts:
Orlando is playing considering dwight howard has 0 points.
New Jersey if off to another slow start shooting .342 FG and .200 3-pt

If new jersey cant improve its shooting they wont cover their end.

Shadowrun · #3 01-20-2007, 11:33 PM

yes sir, it was quite a nail biter for me.
dwight howard with 1 point for the whole game really worried me (as well as putting up 6 in the 4th till some nice shooting)
thought that maybe orlando might give up when they were 10+ points down.

Even though they easily have covered, it was a lot closer than the score shows.

Shadowrun · #4 01-22-2007, 07:38 PM

well i might have had some beginners luck or who knows.

YTD NBA 2-0

I like 3 bets today
1.MEMPHIS AT DENVER Under 233.5
2.Carlos Boozer outscoring KG by 1.5
3.Chicago Beating INDIANA (or keeping it within 1)

1. I think most people arent aware how hard it is to mesh 2 superstars that were/are the scoring leaders. I think AI is gonna try to be a good player and not take as many shots (b/c he doesnt want to alienate his team) + carmelo might be rusty.

2. Overall Boozer is avg 22 points. He is coming off 2 games where he did alright (19 & 22 points), however he only played 37 and 31 minutes. Usually this means he will play 40+ min.
KG is coming off the suspension so he will probably also play 40+ min. The one advantage KG has is that he is more consistent than boozer. KG is avg 17.3 shots a game and 7 FT, while carlos is only 16.2 and 5.8. However, since this is at home is see carlos having enough value here to bet it.

3. I think the Bulls are a better team. Obviously, with a perimeter shooting team you never really know what you will get. The one thing the Pacers having going for them is Jermaine O'Neal. The bulls got Ben Wallace just for this reason to guard the big scoring threat, i think the is going to do his job and the bulls win.

Queensgrad · #5 01-22-2007, 07:52 PM

I think KG explodes for a big night coming off a suspension.

Shadowrun · #6 01-22-2007, 09:14 PM

Half Report:
Chi is playing pretty bland, shooting .385 and pretty awful defense.
Pacers are doing well and taking advantage, shooting .561 in addition their bench (specifically Daniels) did amazing.

Being down 17 at the half is very bad and unless gordon + kirk+ andres go on a 3 point shooting spree + good defense this bet looks like a loser.

P.S. The only good part is the commentators on comcast taking smack about Jared (the guy from Subway)

DISORDER · #7 01-22-2007, 09:18 PM

Yes I am a bit concerned about this bet as well. However, I kind of lucked out as I bet 4 units on the Bobcats +5.5 for the first half. I made the bet because I was watching the pregame show and they announced TJ Ford would not be playing, so I felt it was safe to take a stab.