25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?

Stinger88 · #1 08-26-2007, 01:27 PM

First the hand

PokerStars Game #11702263380: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50) - 2007/08/26 - 13:08:28 (ET)
Table 'Dembowska' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: $tinger 88 ($4950 in chips)
Seat 4: louisianaboi ($2896 in chips)
Seat 5: sweetluvin7 ($3788.50 in chips)
$tinger 88: posts small blind $25
LittleZen: is sitting out
louisianaboi: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to $tinger 88 [9c 9h]
LittleZen leaves the table
sweetluvin7: raises $100 to $150
$tinger 88: raises $350 to $500
louisianaboi: folds
sweetluvin7: calls $350
*** FLOP *** [2s As 4s]
$tinger 88: checks
sweetluvin7: checks
*** TURN *** [2s As 4s] [9d]
$tinger 88: bets $750
sweetluvin7: calls $750
*** RIVER *** [2s As 4s 9d] [Ts]
$tinger 88: checks
sweetluvin7: bets $2538.50 and is all-in
$tinger 88: calls $2538.50

Now my thoughts - I'm putting him on a weakish ace here. I think this range is skewed toward suited aces because he may fold weak offsuit aces preflop. I think he'd check back Ax7s on the river or at least bet smaller, and I really don't see KsJx or something taking this line. Thus, I call. Thoughts?

king_of_drafts · #2 08-26-2007, 01:32 PM

I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something.

jlocdog · #3 08-26-2007, 01:44 PM

Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?

Parlay Slow · #4 08-26-2007, 01:46 PM

Who said he would turn Ax7s into a bluff

jlocdog · #5 08-26-2007, 01:49 PM

I meant just a weak Ace (misread OP's thought).

If he does infact have a weak ace and shoves this river, we cannot consider it for thin value...

PartyGirlUK · #6 08-26-2007, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

king_of_drafts · #7 08-26-2007, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant

PartyGirlUK · #8 08-26-2007, 02:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger?

leatherass · #9 08-29-2007, 12:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played with him some as well and I totally agree with this. When I read Stinger's initial logic it made sense and I tended to thin kcalling was OK. But the more I think about it I really think that a hand like ksx is very possible and even likely. Or a pair with a spade in it. I actually don't like a call here the more and more I think about it. Certainly not a no brainer fold here for sure though.

tsarast · #10 08-30-2007, 03:24 AM

Would sweetluvin call with a hand like A7o? I tend to think that's pretty poor play to call reraises with bad offsuit aces. And considering the As comes on the flop the only way he can turn a bad ace into a bluff (to get you off AK, AQ, etc..) is by calling with Axo preflop, taking a reasonable line to the river, then shoving to get u to fold a small % of your range (big offsuit aces with no spade), when he can still beat a huge part of your range.
That said I think you've outthought yourself on this one, and I think it's a fold. His check behind on the flop also lends itself to him having a big spade in his hand (though perhaps not the Ks)