Reasonable hourly rate?

[JimmieS4]

I spent the better part of two years playing $2/$4 at my local cardroom with $4 total rake/jackpot before moving up to $4/$8 and $10/$20. Since we're talking about low limit I checked my statking databases. The first listing is before I corrected a major leak in my game. YES, discipline was an issue, but this correction fixed this problem. The second database is after implementing the rule AND sticking with it. Yes, I've had bad runs during the second database, but dealt with them with my head high and stayed with my "A" game.

1st Database: 915.15 hours @ $1.74/hour (10% $3 max rake with no jackpot drop)

2nd Database: 281.87 hours @ $4.07/hour (10% $3 max rake with $1 jackpot drop)

Low limit games are beatable at a reasonable rate.

[Foreverastudent]

Fishyak had challenged us to post our stats, but unfortunately at the time, I had only a few hours under my belt when I had started keeping track of my progress.

It's been a few months, and I have a few more hours logged now, and so I'd like to post my results.

Below is a chart of my progress at $3/6 and $4/8 games:



207 hours and 40 minutes of play, and I have won $3644 during that time (includes deductions from buying food and tipping), so that's about $17.55/hr. At $3/6, my rate is $12.48/hr at 89 hours and 50 minutes of play, and at $4/8, my rate is $20.01/hr at 117 hours and 50 minutes of play.

I know it looks really suspicious that my progress so closely follows a straight line, but I think I've just been really lucky in that regard. Looking back on it, I realize now that I could have had a lot wilder up and down ride had a few nights and a few big pots gone the other way.

But I do think big returns are certainly possible at these low stakes. You just need to be very disciplined and very observant. And playing against horrible players certainly doesn't hurt either. The reason I don't think a lot of people have a lot of hours logged at these low limits is because anyone who can earn 2+BB/hr probably has aspirations of playing much higher than $3/6 and $4/8. In fact, I'm getting ready to take a stab at $8/16 and $10/20 games myself, and if I do well there, I doubt I'll ever play the lower games again.

But besides being disciplined and employing sound strategy, I think that knowing your opponents can be extremely profitable and really contributed to my high win rates.

Some players will never check raise and only bet strong hands. Some players only raise pre-flop with pocket pairs. Some players will never fold two pair or better no matter how scary the board is. Some players will never fold to a double raise on the flop if they initially bet, even when it's painfully obvious that they are nearly drawing dead. Some players only raise with the nuts or the near nuts.

You gain the most by recognizing and exploiting these weak tendencies, which is a strategy that I use at these games. It has served me well so far. Don't just develop a cookie cutter strategy that generates a modest profit against a generic $3/6 or $4/8 player. You're really missing out on a lot of profit. I see no reason why other skilled players shouldn't be able to do as well as I have at these levels.

[CAMEL1111]

4bb is the norm for an average player.

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

Mason Malmuth in Poker Essays wrote:
3/6
OK: $4
Good: $8
Great: $12
4/8
OK: $5
Good: $10
Great: $14

I don't now if these hold true anymore.

[One Outer]

We're talking about only live, right? I don't think those are accurate anymore.

4 BB seems high to me. I can see a great player doing 3, but four is a little much.

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Mason Malmuth in Poker Essays wrote:
3/6
OK: $4
Good: $8
Great: $12
4/8
OK: $5
Good: $10
Great: $14

I don't now if these hold true anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really doubt it's possible to make 2bb/hour at 3/6 in our heavily raked modern games. If you are playing against very very bad players (typical for 3/6) that ALSO act fast on their hands, then it becomes more feasible though.

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

I assume he means live. It's 2 big bets for great players not 4 (4 big blinds I guess). I'm pretty sure this essay is a few years old.

[AlienBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really play 3/6 anymore unless I'm waiting for a bigger game, but here are my numbers since March of last year when I started playing at b&m's in L.A.--

102 sessions
297.7 hours
1793 net profit
1.00 bb/hour
141 in expenses (valet, non-dealer tips, food)

[/ QUOTE ]


1 BB/ hour is very realistic, considering the high LA rake.

Those who claim you can sustain 15 to 18 an hour at 3/6 are out of their minds. That's over 2 BB/ hr.

In 3/6 at LA rake levels, 2BB an hour is considered the ceiling for the best pros.

Sure, you might run hot and exceed 2BB an hour at that game for a stretch of 100 hours or more. But sooner or later variance will rear its ugly head.


AB

[AlienBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

102 sessions
297.7 hours
Isn't that an average of 3 hours per session? Any reason for this?
1793 net profit
1.00 bb/hour
141 in expenses (valet, non-dealer tips, food)

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]


I keep my sessions short too. If I'm playing full time (like now, thanks to the [censored] writers strike) I break my session into several "sessionetts" of 2-4 hours each, at different games or different casinos.

While alot of people talk about it all being "one long session" day in and day out, the reality is that people do adjust to your play, and play differently against you once you have several buy ins in front of you. I usually leave after I'm up 2 buy ins or so (sometimes as many as 4), and start again somewhere else. I will also leave if I got hit with bad variance, have played over 4 hours, and have grinded myself back to nearly even.



AB