NL 100 So i decided to make a stand.. really bad?

[Unknown Soldier]

i had it at like 4-5% diff.

anyway, 86o has sweet fa value post flop, nice for meta too (calling A3 and shoving)

[XHitman014]

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Bad time to take a stand. If you're going to do it, I would rather you 4-bet light pre-flop, making it about $35-$40 to go, folding to a shove.

I wouldn't do it on the flop, b/c any c/r with significant fold equity is going to commit you to the pot if he shoves. Also, b/c there's more money in by the time of the flop, it will be less likely that he will fold -- so again, if you're going to run a bluff here, do it preflop where your fold equity is higher.

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I'm pretty sure we have to call if we 4 bet to 40...in fact, it's pretty close if we 4 bet to 35. (with a tight range of KK+,AKs, AKo, include QQ/AQ and we can't fold.

[Some9]

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A decent chunk of his 5-bet shoving range is going to be AK/AQ stuff - when 86 actually has more value than hero's hand. I mean against JJ-AA,AK,AQ as his 5-bet range, 86 has 29%, a3 has 30%. Give him a range of QQ-AA,AK,AQ and 86 actually has more equity than a3s.

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AQ is much worse than TT. Either you put 88+.AQ+ or JJ+.AK+.

And vs those ranges A3s is like the best hand.

[Hail Eris]

I do this a bunch but I just don't think this is the right spot for it. You've been getting 3bet a lot and this is the first time you've called; he hasn't been 3betting you much at all; you opened in MP; he's OOP; the board is the dryest possible. I doubt he's bet/folding now.

[kaby]

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btw i wouldn't be suprised if this (once you call pf) would be +ev vs a 3betting range of TT+/AQ+ let alone a wider range with more unpaired cards on this flop

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vs a range of TT+/AQ+

24 combinations fold (AQ AK only 12 each bc we have an ace)
27 combinations call (TT+)

we have 30.5% equity vs his callrange, rounding down for rake etc, and i don't like decimals [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

EV (villain folds) = 69$
EV (villain calls) = [30*(69$+85$ (our effective shove) + 65 (his call)) - 70*85$]/100 = 6.2$ this means even when called shoving is +ev!

EV (shove)= (24*69$+27*6$)/51= 35$ !!!!

this is ofcourse huge (so huge i rly think my math is off [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] - check? i got it checked on msn and he didn't see any mistakes) but this is also a very good flop for A3s so the preflop call might still be -ev

the thing is, once you call preflop, you really really really have to shove this flop

i'm gonna calculate vs a 3bet range of QQ+/AK now just for fun ^-^

[Dire]

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A decent chunk of his 5-bet shoving range is going to be AK/AQ stuff - when 86 actually has more value than hero's hand. I mean against JJ-AA,AK,AQ as his 5-bet range, 86 has 29%, a3 has 30%. Give him a range of QQ-AA,AK,AQ and 86 actually has more equity than a3s.

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AQ is much worse than TT. Either you put 88+.AQ+ or JJ+.AK+.

And vs those ranges A3s is like the best hand.

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I'm just going with what I've experienced as 5-bet ranges. Alot of people are shoving AQ. For the most part, only nutcases or guys with lots of history are shoving pairs less than TT. And even TT is somewhat uncommon.

I think if you have people 5-bet shoving 88 against you then you have built up one hell of a game. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ikestoys]

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btw a general question: there seem to be 3 counters to light 3betters

-4betting small
-calling and shoving over his cbets alot (this is awesome when he cbets too big or too much but not as good when he doesn't always cbet imho)
-4bet shoving Axs (and some other good hands to balance) pf

it seems like the first method puts the pressure on your opponent AND on you (once he 5bet shoves) ... you need to know how light he is 5bet shoving and that's very hard info to get (not alot of showdowns), so YOU are going to make mistakes too (not calling enough of his shoves or calling too light)

whereas the other two methods only put the pressure on your opponent, and the only info you need is 'he 3bets light' and/or 'he cbets too much', and that info is a lot easier to get, thus you will make less mistakes

thoughts?

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how bout varying your raising range so he has no idea if he should be three betting you

[kaby]

my math is off, corrected math is coming =)

and thx ikestoys that's a good suggestion but tightening up from the button can't be that good because even when he 3bets light 10% of the time, 90% of the time you still pick up the blinds or play in position vs the loose caller in the other blind or ...

or is that incorrect thinkiing of me?

[kaby]

wow i made a conceptual/theoretical mistake in my math post and nobody saw/corrected it :/

in a previous post where barrin shoves 88 both me and barrin made the same mistake and nobody corrected us o_O

vs a range of TT+/AQ+

24 combinations fold (AQ AK only 12 each bc we have an ace)
27 combinations call (TT+)

we have 30.5% equity vs his callrange, rounding down for rake etc, and i don't like decimals [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

EV (villain folds) = 49$
EV (villain calls) = .30*(49+65+85) - 85 = 60-85 = -25

EV (shove) = (24*49 + 27*-25)/51 = 9.8$

so once you decide to call pf you really have to shove here


vs a wider range the EV is higher obv, this still doesn't say anything about the preflop call being good/bad though

[bilbo-san]

I do this all the time vs. light 2-bettors. He folds unpaired Aces a lot. You usually have 7 outs when you get called.

But LOL at those who think villain is likely to fold any pair...