Wagering on the Presidential Election

[mynamewastaken]

I wish Ron Paul would do better, even though he's wrong on a ton of issues, he's right about the war and he's right about inflation. He has no chance whatsoever.

These markets are tough to beat. I think Romney will be the GOP candidate, and he will lose the generalnot for his religion but for the fact that he's a flipflopper. He is the conservative Kerry.

It is too late for McCain, he's the Bob Dole of the race and he's lost favor even with the economic conservative base (that no longer controls the party). Evangelicals won't put up with Giuliani's cross dressing, pro life, pro gay positions and while I think he has the best chance of winning the presidency he can not win the nomination without Bush's (albeit shrinking) base. I would say the rest of the field besides Giuliani/Romney/McCain has a combined 1-100 chance of winning the nomination.

On the Dem side I think it's a tougher call. Edwards may have been sunk by the $400 haircut comment. It sounds shallow but it's exactly the sort of scandal that can shortcircuit a campaign in the early going. I think the GOP wants Hilary as the nominee, because she probably has the least likely chance of the major candidates to win the general. Obama seems like the favorite because it would seem black is not as unelectable as female, or something. I think Obama will be preclusive favorite at some point. Gore is a red herring.

This is the Dems election to lose. But if anyone can blow it it's them.

[pete fabrizio]

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I would say the rest of the field besides Giuliani/Romney/McCain has a combined 1-100 chance of winning the nomination.

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I will take this bet for any amount of money.