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  #21  
Old 11-06-2007, 12:28 AM
Black winter day Black winter day is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

I just talked to him in the chat and he said, he had AK.
That is basically the worst hand he is shoving the river with, IMO.
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  #22  
Old 11-06-2007, 01:01 AM
jok3rzwild jok3rzwild is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

Black,

OnlyNuts has really gotten in ur head eh? In regards to his playing style.

I say

1. If ur that intimidated practice better table selection

2. Fold everything except AA vs him in the future

btw in regards to the hand. Horrible lay-down. Apparently u stack off with only the nuts as well.
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  #23  
Old 11-06-2007, 02:07 AM
MrHoobris MrHoobris is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

Tough spot given your read. My gut says its a call, and so does my math, although I did have to make a few assumptions. (If somebody can confirm I did it right that would be good, because I don't often do these types of calcs.)

Pot odds: (327+347):347 = 1.94:1, so you need 34.0% equity against his range to call.

Combos we are beaten by:
AQs 1
QQ 3 - Doesn't peel the flop all the time, so discounted to 1.5.
Total: 2.5

Combos we chop:
AK 3

Combos we beat:
AJs 1 - rarely calls PF, discounted to 0.25

So, counting the chop outs as half, our odds are:
2.53/2 + 0.25) = 2.5:1.75 --> 1.43:1

Based on this combinatorical analysis we have 41.1% equity, meaning the fold is a relatively significant mistake, especially if there is any chance he is bluffing.

Note: If he always peels QQ on the flop, or ever calls AQo preflop, then calling becomes a significant error. This to me seems unlikely.
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  #24  
Old 11-06-2007, 02:49 AM
Poker879 Poker879 is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

Assuming the range given above. It is actually a fold.

Lose: -347*2.5
Tie: +327/2*3
Win: +(327+347)*.25
Sum: (-867.5 + 490.5 + 168.5)/(2.5+3+.25) = -$36.26 ev.

You can't count the chop outs as half. However. I think if you were to add in .3 possibilites of bluffs, which would be .3/(2.5+3+.25+.3) = 5%, it's neutral EV. So he only needs to bluff 5% of the time to make this a call, but I don't think he is personally with those stats and hero's note
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  #25  
Old 11-06-2007, 03:52 AM
berserk berserk is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

This is just AK too often, he folds AQ preflop i think always. So its AK or QQ, and he may fold QQ on the flop.
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  #26  
Old 11-06-2007, 03:52 AM
ogdundar ogdundar is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

I hate this hand. If you're gonna get 1 street of value and fold with trips top kicker, muck AK preflop. Your line makes no sense.
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  #27  
Old 11-06-2007, 03:55 AM
Jamougha Jamougha is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

You are chopping almost always.
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  #28  
Old 11-06-2007, 05:09 AM
Darkfolder Darkfolder is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

[ QUOTE ]
good fold

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #29  
Old 11-06-2007, 05:17 AM
philipsaurus philipsaurus is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

[ QUOTE ]
ur reraise preflop is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

agree, im pretty sure reraising ak pf is not good against a guy whose utg raising range is this tight. also, your reasons for reraising seem flawed to me. to "make the hand easier to play" is hardly a good reason; plus, i dont think playing AK in a multiway pot is as difficult as you make it seem.
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  #30  
Old 11-06-2007, 05:48 AM
carol-ann carol-ann is offline
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Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

I think it's a call for the chop. If he's as nitty as you say he won't have QQ or AQ here.
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