Big pot, on turn, don't know how many outs I have

[RobA]

Live 10-20 in AC. Loose game (5-6 to flop on average).

UTG+1 is an 80+ year-old, with a hearing aid, that i've never seen before. He's been at the table with me for 2 hours and not raised PF once. He's CR two turns, and took down both of those pots uncontested.

MP is a donator i've played with before. He's loose (any two suited, J2o, etc.) and passive.

My image is tight, nothing special, just a quiet guy.

UTG+1 raises, I cold-call next in with AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP calls. Two LP players call. SB folds. BB calls. 6 players for 12.5 sb.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Check to UTG+1 who bets, I raise, MP calls, 1 LP calls, others fold, UTG+1 calls. 20.5 sb/10.25 bb.

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG+1 checks, I bet, MP raises, LP folds, UTG+1 3-bets.

My main question is how many outs do you value my hand as being, and what should I do here? is it close?

Any other comments appreciated as well.

[ship it pls]

very interesting spot... do we put utg AKh/AJh/AhAx/KhKx/99 with heavy weight on AhKh... i would expect mp to have a small flush often enough to make it close to 7 or 8 outs

[danspartan]

If all your boat outs are live there's 10.

If there is a smaller set (boat) out there its 7.

The only hand you are really bad to is Q9 thats' already boated. You could be down to four outs in that case. But this isnt that likely.

I'd use 7-8 as well.

[jba]

fold preflop?

[cgrohman]

I don't like pre-flop at all. AQ doesn't want to play multi-handed. Raise it or fold it.

I'd assume I have to make a full house to win on the turn. UTG is either chopping already or has a flush.

[RobA]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like pre-flop at all. AQ doesn't want to play multi-handed. Raise it or fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its AQ suited. That, and AJs are my only cold-calling hands, (agree with ed miller) and only done in the exact type of position I was in (fairly early, loose players behind me, and a raiser I don't want to isolate).

On the other hand, others have told me AQs is never a cold-call. Is it NEVER a cold-call for you?

[Mr Rick]

I would value the hand as 8 outs, leaning heavily towards AhKh for UTG+1 and a smaller flush for MP (I think he has a boat <20% of the time), and I would call here. If MP caps then I would assume he has a boat which would still be worth a call when capped.

Taking the worst reasonable case, assuming MP has a boat and UTG+1 has nut flush leaves us with ~6 outs (7 outs to hit our full house but we would tie some of the time, and lose rarely to Q9 if a 3 hits). MP will cap turn so we would be putting in 3 BB to win 19BB + river bets. So its a close call given the worst case scenario.

I don't mind the pre-flop call. UTG+1 hasn't raised yet so getting heads up and re-raised against a likely AA, KK, or AKs is not what I want to accomplish with a 3-bet. Also, AQs plays fine multihanded. I wouldn't fold it either.

Edit: Against most players who have a wider perceived range I will re-raise pre-flop with AQs, in most games (my 10/20 games are usually not tight/aggressive). Ed Miller suggests calling with AQs in tight games, raising in Loose games, in EP.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Live 10-20 in AC. Loose game (5-6 to flop on average).

UTG+1 is an 80+ year-old, with a hearing aid, that i've never seen before. He's been at the table with me for 2 hours and not raised PF once. He's CR two turns, and took down both of those pots uncontested.

MP is a donator i've played with before. He's loose (any two suited, J2o, etc.) and passive.

My image is tight, nothing special, just a quiet guy.

UTG+1 raises, I cold-call next in with AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP calls. Two LP players call. SB folds. BB calls. 6 players for 12.5 sb.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Check to UTG+1 who bets, I raise, MP calls, 1 LP calls, others fold, UTG+1 calls. 20.5 sb/10.25 bb.

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG+1 checks, I bet, MP raises, LP folds, UTG+1 3-bets.

My main question is how many outs do you value my hand as being, and what should I do here? is it close?

Any other comments appreciated as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do we have a three or four bet cap here? If 4 bets is the cap I raise. Somebody may have pair with nut flush draw. If it is a five bet cap I just call the turn. But we go to showdown.

[RobA]

Thank you all for your comments. Ship it pls, you nailed his hand - AhKh. MP had KdQd.

So, I folded the turn. The river was, of course, an A.

At first I thought the fold was awful. I'll agree it was bad, but not awful. I actually only had 2 clean outs (2 aces), and 6 outs to a chopped pot (3 nines, and 3 threes). That's like 5 clean outs right? Poker 101 says we need about 8.2-1 to call on turn for 5 clean outs. That's right about what I was getting, so probably call.

I guess the take-home message for me is to see all the boat outs when you have trips, which is basic I know, but not as easy to see as the boat outs when you have a set. But some of you guys saw too many (forget to discount all the ones I was chopping with another queen).

[Yads]

I'm going to discount your outs to 7, but you have to fold this hand PF, an old guy who hasn't raised in 2 hours raises UTG+1, AQ is usually smoked. If you are even considering playing AJ here you have to reevaluate your PF requirements.