Child's QQ -v- Yang's JJ

[suzzer99]

You need to calculate chip stacks and cash equity if you really want to analyze the situation.

Pure chip EV is not equal to $EV at a final table with steeply ascending pay ladder.

Unless of course you're playing purely for glory.

[Silent A]

Here's the action on the hand:

With 630K in blinds and antes, Childs raises preflop to 720k UTG with QQ. Yang re-raises UTG+1 to 2.5 million with JJ. Folds to Childs who calls.

Pot = 5.63 million

Flop = 7 4 2 (2 clubs)

Childs bets 3 million and Yang says "all-in" for 11.78 million before Childs finishes putting in his chips.

Pot = 19.41 million, 7.78 million to call (Childs covers, but apparently not by much).

That's 2.5:1, Childs needs 29% equity to call (ignoring the chip EV to money EV gap).

If Yang's range is (AA-QQ, AcKc) then it's a good fold:

Hold'em Simulation
13,860 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 7c4d2c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsQh 13.46% 1,393 945
AA-QQ,AcKc 86.54% 11,522 945

Anything wider, and it's not:

Hold'em Simulation
19,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 7c4d2c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsQh 36.24% 6,703 945
AA-JJ,AcKc 63.76% 12,152 945

[jogsxyz]

Childs just isn't thinking. He underplayed his queens. Childs flat called the reraise preflop. Why would Yang not think his jacks are best? Childs should call because Childs' hand is above the range he represented to Yang.

[ronitonline]

Yang is a newb.

[Joseph Hewes]

[ QUOTE ]
Childs played it SO good up until the fold. He raised UTG, got reraised, smooth called the maniac, got a dry flop with no A or K, and then did a "weak" lead out into a guy who loves to come over the top of weakness with a myriad of hands.

The plan should of been "I'm leading to give this guy the opportunity to do something dumb"; he did, and Childs STILL couldn't pull the trigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jaybizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
this is the most ridiculous laydown in the history of televised poker! I dont know how these guys make final tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

He won a 2 million chip pot off me KK vs AA. If I knew what I know now maybe I lay it down to this nit.

[gusmahler]

[ QUOTE ]
I watched the PPV, and this hand was around hand #11 and Yang had raised roughly 5 of the first 10 hands and won without a showdown. He was clearly playing very aggressively and I said at the time that the QQ fold was beyond horrible.


[/ QUOTE ]
This hand was actually the 9th hand of the day:
http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/...day7/page34.htm

Yang won 4 of the first 8 hands.

[Gorvacofin]

It seems crazy to smooth-call QQ preflop if you're not going to get the rest in when the flop comes three rags. I think shove preflop is best though. Not as bad as the hand Hilm was eliminated on though. I think Childs and Hilm were both undone by their desire to outplay Yang on the flop - Hilm by calling with a ridiculous hand out of position, Childs by trap-calling and then chickening out.

[Will The Thrill]

it's easy to say what we'd do in that situation after watching, but if for whatever reason CHild's read was that he was either beat, or that Yang had the nut flush draw and had a feeling he was going to catch(which Yang caught EVERYTHING in the hands they showed us) I know if the next spot up is another 100k, that's reason enough to not jump in when your read or your gut says to fold. Plus Jerry had Jesus on his side, he told us so 1500 times! Everyone thought they never showed us Jerry till the final table because he was boring, it's actually because he prayed so damn much he was annoying, not to mention his talking to the other players was equally annoying as Khan's dancing and yelling. I know they showed one hand where two huge all ins ahead of Yang and he had K8 and he goes into the tank, pointless delaying of the action for your opponents who have their tournament life on the line. But hey maybe Jesus was in the bathroom and he had to wait to find out if his K-K-8 flop was coming

[HustlerLA]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you fold qq there with less then 50 bb's?

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't but in his defense: Normally we avoid games where we play with scared money. We do this by choosing games we are properly bankrolled and games that are of a stakes that we are mentally comfortable with. I can see how when playing at the final table of the WSOP main event, it would be easier to play too cautious like he did, even for a normally aggressive player. I think this is the one reason why J.Yang won the thing. It was particularly evident by watching it live with no hole cards. He was just not afraid and capatilized on all hesitence. 1 million!