Stud8: Raise or fear freeroll?

blumpkin · #1 10-04-2006, 01:05 AM

7 Card Stud High-Low ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.00 SB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.50 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls

6th Street - (4.50 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___?
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___

FishySayBANG! · #2 10-04-2006, 01:12 AM

Just call on 6th because I would wager that the 4 Seat probably has a 6

Do you really think there is any value in betting 5th? Even if he has a pair + low draw you are in bad shape and the only reason why he is checking is because he is scared of your board

Andy B · #3 10-04-2006, 01:27 AM

The other guy is almost certainly free-rolling on you. You're showing a very strong low board, and yet he bets into you. Granted, you haven't been super-aggressive, and I assume that you are on the aggressive side, but still, 543 s00ted is pretty scary. I really think that you can only call.

mscags · #4 10-04-2006, 09:59 AM

Tough decision Blump, but I really think calling is best here, you have a big hand and a strong redraw but I really don't want 3 bets going in here, which could happen some of the time. I think it is very likely he has a low made already and also probably has a live hand for high. If his board was more raggy then I raise all the way, but this is a scary one. Also he is betting into you even though you have quite the scary board yourself.

Bartholow · #5 10-04-2006, 10:14 AM

Seems pretty difficult to imagine he doesn't have a low, and I don't find that players in that game are willing to just let hands go, so I don't see any value in a raise.

Bill King · #6 10-04-2006, 11:38 AM

why not raise 4th?

Spladle · #7 10-04-2006, 04:33 PM

Call down. Maybe raise if you river a full house or a flush.

blumpkin · #8 10-05-2006, 12:44 PM

Since my opponent is not particularly tricky, I think there's a good chance that he paired either on 4th or 5th. For example, I don't think he would do something like check/call 5th street with a 7 high straight, and then bet out 6th street. Consequently, I think his most likely hand on 6th is either (a) a made low with a pair or (b) aces up and a 4-low. In the former case, he has between 3 and 7 outs to scoop IF I DON'T IMPROVE. Note that I have 16 outs to improve to a flush or boat out of the 38 remaining cards in the deck. That means the likelihood of him scooping, even in a near-worst case scenario is something like (22/38)*(7/37), or about 10 percent. In the latter case, that is, if he has not yet made a low, my equity is something close to 75%:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2114884
pokenum -7s8 ac 6h 5s 6c 7c as - kd kc 5d 4d 3d kh / 5h ah 9d ts
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 1260 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 5s Ac 7c 6c 6h 88 88 1172 0 490 0 0 0.264
Kc Kd 5d 4d 3d Kh 682 1172 88 0 0 0 0 0.736

Moreover, even if IS freerolling on 6th, the likelihood of a 3-bet after I raise is very small, EVEN IF HE HAS A STRAIGHT. Indeed, HE will fear that I have a better low and that I am actually FREEROLLING ON HIM.

So it all comes down to how frequently he is still drawing on 6th. In the actual hand, I raised (without thinking it through enough) and he called and I scooped over his two pair. I'm still not sure about the raise. Most of the time, it is a slightly losing play, but some of the time it is a significant winning play. It all depends on the probabilities of his various hand ranges.

Bartholow · #9 10-05-2006, 05:17 PM

I'm feeling a little slow right now, but why can't he have a flush or straight draw here? It's at least possible that he has a made low and a flush draw right? Unless you think you can make him fold a made rough low with no high, I don't see enough value in this raise.

Spladle · #10 10-05-2006, 09:11 PM

Very interesting hand. Thanks for posting it.