JJ bubble spot 6.50

[PokahPokah]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Hero (t4210)
UTG (t3815)
Button (t1305)
SB (t4170)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG raises to t3765, Button calls t1255 (All-In),SB folds, Hero ?
utg is pretty much a lagtard

[kong98]

I would call here. You're likely ahead and you're only really unhappy if you lose to both players.

1. Beat both = big stack
2. Beat UTG, lose to button = ~2500 chips for you
3. Beat button, lose to UTG = 3rd place
4. Lose to both = crappy

[maca9]

I would like to see what the veterens have to say here?

Do you fold because the button calling must have a decent hand?

[taipan168]

I'd call this. I'd say you're way ahead of both of their ranges and you're only crippled if Button wins the main pot and UTG wins the side pot.

[ymu]

I don't think you can fold this with those reads and this situation. Shortie is probably calling fairly wide here, especially if UTG is pushing loose. He has to beat both of you to survive and if he doesn't you get at least 3rd or a 2:1 chiplead going into HU.

I think SB is happier with this situation than I am, but I'm calling anyway.

[Dr_Wonderful]

Call. Bubbling would be a disaster but highly unlikely. if you beat UTG you'll be at either 5k or so or 9k. If you lose you'll most likely get 3rd and have some money. Considering you're so likely to place here you might as well think of this as an ITM type of hand, and actually you're in better shape considering people try and take advantage of the bubble with a wider range. I have no idea how to do the math on how often you bust here, but it's slim.

[DeuceSeven]

I call this all day.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how to do the math on how often you bust here, but it's slim.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the three way match up - giving UTG about 25% and button about 11%.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.876% 25.36% 00.52% 40912200 839869.50 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 29.959% 29.36% 00.59% 47381106 958840.50 { 22+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 44.166% 43.56% 00.60% 70290897 973254.00 { JJ }


The 70% that Shortie busts, we're safe. If he doesn't bust, we have to beat UTG:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.674% 33.23% 00.45% 1000220016 13443702.00 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 66.326% 65.88% 00.45% 1983123012 13443702.00 { JJ }


So we bust ~ 0.3*0.33 = ~10%.

If the ranges are correct (and ignoring non-independence of outcomes if they share an overcard or two, but if this is the case it shouldn't work out badly for us).

[malfobi]

Id be pushing here too, and im a bit tightie id fire away here.

[Shillx]

Call. Prob TT+ and AK here. Maybe 99