AA facing CRAI on a drawy flop

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone is glancing at this too quickly and assuming it is a huge overbet. Looking at pot size and effective stacks:

Hero started with $50.90-$7.75-$12.00=$31.15

Pot before shove $16.00+$12.00=$28.00

That makes the shove a little bigger than a PSB, but definitely not a huge overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our equity sucks vs his range, and he's overbet the pot (regardless of by how much) - fold?

[Waingro]

When I put in 15% of my stack pf with AA I am not folding ever. If villain flopped a set good for him, he didn´t have odds and if we think that villain could call pf with two unpaired cards this is an easy call.

[microDonk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone is glancing at this too quickly and assuming it is a huge overbet. Looking at pot size and effective stacks:

Hero started with $50.90-$7.75-$12.00=$31.15

Pot before shove $16.00+$12.00=$28.00

That makes the shove a little bigger than a PSB, but definitely not a huge overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our equity sucks vs his range, and he's overbet the pot (regardless of by how much) - fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was merely commenting on the fact that a number of people (including you) were saying that it was a massive overbet. I didn't want that thinking to skew people's view of the hand. If villian were using a bet pot button he would be putting hero all-in, so I think considering it an overbet is a mistake.

Regarding the actual fold/call decision, in your original reply you have the OP as a 1.73-1 underdog vs. villians range, and the pot is offering 1.9-1. Your range for villian looked pretty good to me, and if you add those two together I would say that makes it a call.

[starkwired]

This screams flush draw to me, so I probably call it. I know that's just going with my gut, but his line doesn't make sense for most other hands (maybe a straight draw too?). Why would he put so much in with a set? Would make more sense to just lead out at that flop. Also, regarding pf bet size, I think it's fine.

[Jay_Whufc]

[ QUOTE ]
Villians raise is a massive overbet.

Would he not 4-bet KK,QQ,AKs preflop ?


I think this is a little closer to home:

Board: Td 7s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.599% 35.37% 01.23% 15055 525.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 63.401% 62.17% 01.23% 26465 525.00 { JJ-77, AsTs, KsQs, JsTs, Ts9s, T8s, 9s8s, 87s, T8o, 87o }

I would fold this without reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is awful. KK/QQ is easily in his range, ppl call 3bets with these hands so often at these stakes. As for 87o, 108o, well.............

[monkeymaps]

after 3 betting pre and cbetting flop I cant see how you can fold this.

[Gelford]

Looks good to me, nice hand ... and oh well, just variance [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[orig!naL]

I think this is JJ-QQ or a flush draw more than it is a set. I would call.

[KCrow]

Cheers for the feedback.........I thought it was pretty close. Anyway I called and lost to a set of tens.