questionable turn and river play with AQo UI

[rzk]

villain is 55/7/1.3/38/1520

always lost in these spots on the turn. if i bet i'm afraid of being raised off of the best hand, if i c/c i can be value owned.

what about the river value bet?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Results:
Final pot: 5BB

[exlka]

i actually like it. It sure looks like he has a worse Ace after the checkbehind. But you could make an argument for c/c because of the busted FD as well.
I'm not sure about the turncheck. Probably he's not passiv enough to b/f on this turn and i would hate to b/c with AQ high, so c/c is a valid play imo.

[NinaWilliams]

IMO A high is a small part of his range on the river so I dont like the value bet. Id check and let him bluff his trash. Id usually bet the turn too to charge his 6 outers and flush draws. With 1500 hands vs this guy, you should have a good idea of what to do vs a turn raise.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO A high is a small part of his range on the river so I dont like the value bet. Id check and let him bluff his trash. Id usually bet the turn too to charge his 6 outers and flush draws. With 1500 hands vs this guy, you should have a good idea of what to do vs a turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

these 1500 hands are datamined so i don't know his tendencies. i assumed he peels the flop with all of his A high hands and should call with them if i bet the river. from his turn check i assumed that he doesn't want to bluff me and likely doesn't have a pair. i guess he could still bluff now if he has a busted flush draw or some other random Q high type holding. this is one of those spots where i don't know if the villain is aggressive enough for inducing a bluff or passive enough for a blocking/value bet.

if you bet the turn, would you c/c a brick river and c/f a diamond?

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
if you bet the turn, would you c/c a brick river and c/f a diamond?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

EDIT: I think checking is better if you have a read that villain is the type to put in a bet on the turn and river with nothing. Most of the time im betting and folding to a raise.