Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:02 PM
RudeboyOi RudeboyOi is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 494
Default is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

cause i pass the 7 and 10 and 11 mark

same goes for -11.5/-12.5
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:18 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Rugby Heaven
Posts: 382
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Assuming we are talking about the NFL here, the 11 is a fairly uncommon number and gaining the 6 is much better, though still not +EV.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:31 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: kingputtlv
Posts: 7,328
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:15 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, but games that have a line of -6.5 will have a higher distribution of 10 and 11pt games than games that have a line of -2.5
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:29 PM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,410
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.

Where do you people get your information?

FWIW In GENERAL don't tease these, a straight bet or some other bet is going to offer more +EV. There are times to teaser them particularly if you need additional legs in teasers to round robin or w/e, but in GENERAL, don't.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:36 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: kingputtlv
Posts: 7,328
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

uh, where do you get your information? I was speaking with no knowledge of facts - just an understanding of mathematical distributions. I'd be eager to look at a graph using real data points.

kyro,

You are, of course, correct.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:41 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:36 PM
Performify Performify is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Sports Betting forum
Posts: 3,847
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:40 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: kingputtlv
Posts: 7,328
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

ty
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:05 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: kingputtlv
Posts: 7,328
Default Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.