8/16 live, 98s

[aK13]

8/16 Bay 101 9 handed

I've been running kinda card dead and haven't made it to showdown in a long long time. UTG (Villain) here is, I dunno. Probably can classify him as a typical like 5/10 full ring player that is probably breakeven. Maybe slightly too loose, slightly too weak.

UTG open limps, I limp next 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] , 2 in LMP call, SB calls, BB checks his option.

6 to flop for 6SB: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
blinds check, UTG bets, I call, all fold.

2 to turn for 4BB: brick
UTG checks, I check.

2 to river for 4BB: brick
UTG checks, I...

[BigBadBabar]

bet. not sure if i'd raise the flop. prob not, given position. i prob would bet the turn if he checks to us.

[Xhad]

Bet turn, easily. On the turn it looks like a draw and if not you have a ton of outs. I started to say bet river but then I remembered this is B&M and the type of player described is unlikely to pay us off (we're winning most of the time but that's because he also flopped a draw).

[steakhouse]

Flop is fine, you don't want to get into a big pot HU against a pair of queens. I would bet the turn and against a bet I'd raise the turn for a free showdown.

[Xhad]

I don't see any merit in (hypothetically) raising the turn unless we think villain can fold JJ-TT. We're absolutely crushing any smaller pair, AK/AJ isn't so much of a concern because some of his pair "outs" are also hearts (unless he has the NFD), and we spew if he has TPTK/overpair/set and decides to 3bet it.

[steakhouse]

We're getting a free showdown when villain has TP, JJ-TT or 9 higher kicker? Isn't there some value in that? I think that hero shouldn't be afraid of getting 3-betted since then we know that a pair of nines is no good (and we can fold the river unimproved) and we still have plenty of outs.

We're definately not spewing chips if we get 3-betted. We just lost 1BB if we don't draw out and we win 1 more if we draw out (and getting 3-betted on the turn is much less likely than getting a free showdown).

In other terms - let's assume a scenario one where hero is against QJ (we're getting a free showdown from this hand for sure). We have 31.82% pot equity on the turn. So 68.18% of the time we're losing just as much bets as a calldown would lose and 31.82% we're winning 1BB more.

Let's assume that we're against Q7 and we're getting 3-betted on the turn. We have 25% equity and we're losing 1 more bet 75% of the time and winning 2 more bets when we draw out (Let's assume that we get 1 bet more on the river when we hit. We actually get to raise the river from time to time).

So in this simplified scenario we can see that if x is the propability of QJ and y is the propability of Q7 and x + y = 1 (so those are the only hands that villain can have) we're getting x(0,3182)+y(0,50-0,75) = 0,3182x - 0,25y.

So if x = 0,5 = y, in other words 2-pair and tp are both villains holdings 50% of the time we're still winning ~ 0.07BB with this play. Naturally we face tp more often than 2-pair.

Raising the turn is definately not spewing chips, but I think that infact it's the correct play.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
We're getting a free showdown when villain has TP, JJ-TT or 9 higher kicker? Isn't there some value in that?

[/ QUOTE ]

A "free" showdown is never a reason to raise in and of itself; it's 2BB to call down vs. 2BB to raise, with raising being the less reliable play.

[ QUOTE ]
We're definately not spewing chips if we get 3-betted. We just lost 1BB if we don't draw out and we win 1 more if we draw out

[/ QUOTE ]

And we'll miss more often than we'll hit, so...

[steakhouse]

Read above.

[Xhad]

Your mistake is in assuming that we win more if we raise and then hit. Most people will still bet/call even if you hit, especially if we hit something other than a flush.

[steakhouse]

We propably get a crying call from TP but JJ and less will def. fold the river even if we hit trips or 2-pair. If we hit out flush I'm not so sure we get a call on the river. If we raise on the turn we're more likely to a) win the pot right here b) get max value when we hit

I also think that we get 2 BBs in on the river almost always when we get 3-betted the turn since villain is propably not putting us in a flush draw so we're not losing that much money when this occurs. If we ALWAYS get 2 BBs in then we're even on the y scenario. Ok, let's simulate the calldown line too.

1-QJ: we win 1 bet when we hit a non-flush out. This occurs 0.114 of the time. We hit our flush 0.2045 of the time and z percent of the time we get paid off. So now we have x(0.114+z0.2045)
2-Q7: we win 1 bet when we hit our draw. So now we get
0.25y

So if we assume that we get paid off with the flush 80% of the time we get 0.2776x + 0.25y which gives us ~ +0.265 BB

and we're actually getting only +0.035BB by raising since I forgot that x and y were 0,5 and not 1.

If we assume that we get 2 bet in the scenario 2 - raise turn we're getting +0.16 BB which is getting closer but not close enough to be the best play.

I stand corrected [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]