Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[Post-Oak]

I'm surprised to see LSU as such a heavy favorite to win the BCS Championship, especially because it is possible to bet against them on at least 3 different sites (WSEX, 5Dimes, Matchbook).

I already shorted them on WSEX at -122, -138 and -156. You can now bet against them at -178.

Here's my calculations for their chance to win the BCS. I am assuming they need to win all of their remaining games, which is a good assumption, though not 100%.

Regular season games (with spread and chance to win):

@ Mississippi -19.5 89.6%
Arkansas -14.5 83.0%

The game at Mississippi is this Saturday, so obviously the line is available. The line for the Arkansas game is a game of the year, so that line is available. The winning percentages are calculated using Pinny's moneylines. So according to available lines, LSU has a 25.6% of losing again before the regular season is even over.

After the regular season, they will play in the SEC Championship game in the Georgia Dome (Atlanta, Georgia). They will play either Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.

Tennesse is 4-2 in the SEC, with two conference games left. If they win them both, they win the SEC. This would probably be the easiest opponent of the three for LSU to face. Here are their remaining games.

Vanderbilt -11.5 79.2%
@ Kentucky (PK) (50.0%)

Any numbers in paranthesis are my estimates. Any number not in paranthesis is an available line. Their chance of winning out is estimated by me as 39.6%. This is the only way they win the SEC East.

Georgia is 5-2 in the SEC and only has 1 SEC game left.

Kentucky -7.5 73.0%

Here's the scenarios and how they shake out.

1. Georgia wins Kentucky (73.0%), Tennessee wins both (39.6%) = Tennessee wins SEC East 28.9%

2. Georgia wins (73%), Tennessee wins (79.2%), then loses (50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 28.9%

3. Georgia wins (73%), Tennesse loses (20.8%), then wins (50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 7.6%

4. Georgia wins (73%), Tennesse loses twice (20.8% X 50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 7.6%

5. Georgia loses (27%), Tennessee wins twice (39.6%) = Tennessee wins SEC East 10.7%

6. Georgia loses, Tennesse wins, then loses = Florida wins SEC East 10.7%

7. Georgia loses, Tennesse loses, then wins = Florida wins SEC East 2.8%

8. Georgia loses, Tennesse loses both - Florida wins SEC East 2.8%

The way Florida wins is if more than 2 teams finish at 5-3, they will win the tiebreaker. The key is that Kentucky would be 5-3 if they beat Georgia and Tennesse, which means 3 teams will be 5-3 in any of the scenarios where Georgia loses and Tennesse splits.

Tenn 39.6%
GA 44.1%
FL 16.3%

Here's the lines I made up for the SEC Championship in Atlanta, GA (Georgia has been given a HFA).

Georgia vs LSU (-3) (59.0%)
Tennesse vs LSU (-7.5) (73.0%)
Florida vs LSU (-3) (59.0%)

So we'll say that LSU has a 64.5% chance (the weighted average) to win the SEC Championship game. We're down to a 48.0% chance of them still not having their second loss by now.

The BCS Championship game is in New Orleans, which we'll consider as being a home field advantage. Their opponent will very likely be Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma or Missouri. Whichever one of these powerhouses wins out will be a formidable opponent and we'll say that LSU is about equal to them.

LSU (-3) (60%)

So we come to a final number of 28.8% to win the BCS title. That means +247 would be a fair line. It is possible to bet against them at -175 on Matchbook and 5Dimes. It is -178 on WSEX.

I would like to hear from anyone who disagrees with my estimated lines, especially if you think LSU should be an even bigger favorite in the games I estimated.


LSU Schedule:

@ Mississippi -19.5 89.6%
Arkansas -14.5 83.0%
SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA - Georgia Dome) (64.5%)
BCS Championship (New Orleans, LA - Louisiana Superdome) (60%)