$11 NLTRN: Top pair gets all-in on the turn

[soop]

I think getting all in on the flop is ok. There are plenty of draws and weaker 9's you beat and not a lot of hands that beat you (overpairs tend to raise pf, 93,83 tend to fold). I mean if he is kinda passive you can assume a check min raise is a big hand, but given no reads it seems ok.

Assuming you don't fold, calling > shoving flop > 3betting to 500 IMO.

Let's take 3betting to 500 vs shoving. Most bad players will call a 3bet with something like 67. Then they'll fold the turn to a push if you miss. The problem here is if you raise to 500, opp actually does have odds to call with something like 67 - if you push any turn. Then he can call the pushes when he hits and fold otherwise. On the other hand calling a shove with 67 would be a big plus for you.

Some quick EV calcs against 67:

EV(opp folds flop): +440
EV(opp calls flop push): +892
Ev(opp calls flop | folds turn if he misses): +400


If he doesn't have a draw, raising to 500 might keep a weak pair in. That's kinda questionable though; I get snap called by like A8 here sometimes. (Prolly makes a difference if this is a turbo or not)

Personally, I like calling the best. It's more read dependent b/c he has to semi-bluff a fair amount, but it traps extra money in the pot and people will put you on a draw and call more.

[MxGucci]

LOL

[Somekid]

There's been a lot of good discussion here, but I still don't feel much closer to figuring out the best play here.

I'm really torn between 3-betting the flop something like 550 and just shoving. 3-betting to 550 seems good, although it might mean that I'm outdrawn a few times, and I pretty much have to get all in on the turn if I play the hand that way. Shoving, while I feel like it's +EV here, doesn't seem optimal.

Finally, I think people have made some pretty good arguments for just calling the c/r, but I feel like it puts us in an awkward spot on a lot of turns (and that's why I don't like the way I played it).

EDIT: Also, MxGucci, what are you LOLing at?

[mjws00]

I just don't see any reason to shove this. If villian was just reraising with air or light, he doesn't often lead a turn like this. If he was an over aggro lag monkey he raises you bigger and pots this or shoves. This smells of classic donk extraction we have very little FE based on this action. This is a value move by villian a LOT, I suppose it could be a semi-bluff block, but rarely. More likely overpair, two pair, set etc...

It would be nice to show down, but a pair of 9's with only a queen doesn't inspire me to go broke vs his action. He called a raise, check min-raised you and led decent... I wouldn't mind seeing the river so I probably peel the turn. But I am slowed WAY WAY down, and I feel like I went to far if he pots it or shoves.

Fsck I wish I could find all these people that stack off with something you're ahead of here.

Mike