AQ in position against a TAG

private joker · #1 06-11-2007, 03:44 AM

Commerce 20.

A terrible player limps UTG, I raise A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP. Folded to the SB who 3-bets, limper folds, I call.

Read on SB: He's been playing pretty tight and actually hasn't played a hand in a while. Most people have noticed, and now when he raises PF he just wins the blinds. When he's in a hand post-flop he tends to play fairly aggressively. If I had to spitball a range for him 3-betting from the SB in this situation, I'd say it's probably 88+, AQs+, AKo/AKs.

Flop comes down K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He bets, I call.
Turn brings the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He bets, I call.
River is the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and he bets in rhythm. I... ???

Is this just a simple math problem?

n.s. · #2 06-11-2007, 04:10 AM

88-TT - 18 combos

AK(6), AA(3), KK(1), QQ(3), JJ(3) = 16 combos

So if he'd come this far with a PP and pay off a raise, you have the world's thinnest value-raise - assuming you can safely fold to a 3-bet.

I think I'd just call.

HOWMANY · #3 06-11-2007, 04:22 AM

The way you have set this up the "right" answer is probably to fold. I'd probably free showdown raise the turn against this player though. As played call and lose a lot, sometimes be surprised and win because I think his range is probably wider than you give him credit for.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #4 06-11-2007, 04:30 AM

I don't get the question. There's 5% of opponents you might consider folding against and 2% that you might consider raising against as a bluff. The other 93%, it's a capital-C call.

bakku · #5 06-11-2007, 04:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The way you have set this up the "right" answer is probably to fold. I'd probably free showdown raise the turn against this player though. As played call and lose a lot, sometimes be surprised and win because I think his range is probably wider than you give him credit for.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a horrible spot to free showdown raise imo

Vehn · #6 06-11-2007, 04:52 AM

these responses are a joke right

MitchL · #7 06-11-2007, 05:13 AM

I cant believe you are ever ahead here. People who have the initiative pf dont usually try to bluff on these types of boards. You said he was aggressive, but he would have to be borderline maniac to do this live.

HOWMANY · #8 06-11-2007, 05:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The way you have set this up the "right" answer is probably to fold. I'd probably free showdown raise the turn against this player though. As played call and lose a lot, sometimes be surprised and win because I think his range is probably wider than you give him credit for.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a horrible spot to free showdown raise imo

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Villain's not the kind of guy to ever 3bet when we're behind and I'm guessing a very large portion of his range he is going to convince himself that he needs to call and see the river.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #9 06-11-2007, 05:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I cant believe you are ever ahead here. People who have the initiative pf dont usually try to bluff on these types of boards. You said he was aggressive, but he would have to be borderline maniac to do this live.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have like 88 in opponent's shoes, then you have to make a decision about whether to fire two barrels or give up on the turn because there are enough weak hands like AJ that pick up enough of a hand to call on the turn but will generally fold the river unimproved. Another slight problem is that another AQ will generally bet the river because it can't think of anything better to do. So it's a call if he's an aggressive TAG rather than some total nit.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #10 06-11-2007, 05:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The way you have set this up the "right" answer is probably to fold. I'd probably free showdown raise the turn against this player though. As played call and lose a lot, sometimes be surprised and win because I think his range is probably wider than you give him credit for.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a horrible spot to free showdown raise imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain's not the kind of guy to ever 3bet when we're behind and I'm guessing a very large portion of his range he is going to convince himself that he needs to call and see the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but what if he 3-bets when he's ahead? Even if we can confidently fold the river (and I'm sure that we can) we're still putting an extra bet into the pot versus calling down. Honestly if I had a seizure and raised the turn I'd probably bet the river as a bluff because this is a really awful board for AK or AA.