Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[Post-Oak]

Here's the analysis I did for the chances of the other main contenders to make it into the BCS title game.

Oregon has 3 games left:

@ Arizona -11.5 78.62%
@ UCLA (-11) (78.57%)
Oregon St -19.5 89.6%

Again, numbers in paranthesis are my own. All others are available lines. This gives them a 55.4% chance to run the table. As long as Kansas does not also run the table, this should assure them a spot in the BCS title game.

The line in the BCS game will of course depend on who they play, especially because the game is in New Orleans. This gives at least a small advantage to LSU, should they make it.

Kansas will make it into the BCS title game if they run the table and Oregon loses. They would probably leap frog Oregon even if Oregon does run the table.

Iowa St -26 (94.0%)
Missouri (-4.5) (63.0%)
Oklahoma - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (PK) (50%)

This puts them at 29.6% to run the table. Again, this could have a direct effect on whether Oregon makes it or not, because KU could pass Oregon even if Oregon does not lose again.

Missouri will make it if they run the table, and Oregon loses.

@ Kansas State -7 70.3%
@ Kansas (+4.5) (37%)
Oklahoma - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (+1.5) (47.0%)

This puts them at 12.2% to win those 3 games.


Oklahoma is in the same situation.

@ Texas Tech -7.5 71.9%
Oklahoma St -20 (90%)
Kansas/Missouri - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (51.0%)

This would put them at 33% to run the table.

[Post-Oak]

One thing I screwed up is that Kansas' game against Missouri is actually taking place at a neutral site. The game is in Kansas City, Missouri. It is not a home game.

Edit to add: The game is taking place in Arrowhead Stadium

[pgjcbsn]

[ QUOTE ]


Personally, I hope the B12 rep makes it as I enjoy winning huge wads of cash shorting them in BCS title games: 55-17, 13-2, Miami up 34-0 in 2nd Q. Their record is vomitriffic the past 10 years in these games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 13 to 2 score is a big 12 win, Okla over FSU.

Last 10 BCS title games:

big 12 - 3 wins
sec - 3 wins
acc - 2 wins
pac 10 - 1 win
big 11(ten) - 1 win

[KLLions]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I'm offering you any of 3 teams, ALL ranked ahead of ASU that will likely play ASU in the bowl game, ASU has an injured QB, on a neutral field, at PICK, and you don't want the action.

That's completely fine, just admit your earlier statement was wrong and you're not willing back it up. Rather than just say "No thanks, nice offer," you moved the goalposts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Reading comprehension problem? I said I thought it was funny that you thought they were better than any B12 team. Then I said I would take Oklahoma if they play. How would that possibly be moving the goal posts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poster 1: ASU is better than most of the B12 teams ranked ahead of them. B12 has played soft schedule.
Poster 2: It's funny that you think ASU is better than any of those 3 teams. You are dumb and haven't watched the B12.

P1: Okay, I'll take ASU over any of their B12 opponent in a bowl game at Even money.
P2: Oh, I only want the Sooners. When I said it was funny that you think ASU is better than Sooners, 'Hawks, Tigers, I really meant only the Sooners. But I won't back down even though it is stunning obvious I think ASU is better than 2 of the 3 teams mentioned.

P1: Man, move the goalposts much?
P2: Oh, is it really that obvious? Just because I pussed out on 2 of the 3 teams I said was 'pretty funny' if anyone thought ASU was better than? Damn. I am bad at lyfe.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Personally, I hope the B12 rep makes it as I enjoy winning huge wads of cash shorting them in BCS title games: 55-17, 13-2, Miami up 34-0 in 2nd Q. Their record is vomitriffic the past 10 years in these games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 13 to 2 score is a big 12 win, Okla over FSU.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that was a stupid error on my part. the 55-17 and 134-pt shellackings the B12 have taken in past 6 years made me forget.

However, there have only been 9 BCS Title Games:
Acc 2
B12 2
SEC 3
B10 1
p10 1
and I heavily backed Texas ATS and SU in one of them, I got no trouble backing them when they are actually good, same as I jumped all over USC+1 v Okla when they were actually good.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCS_Nat...mpionship_Game

[cato-tonia]

1. LSU would crush Oregon.

2. LSU would win against Kansas.

3. OU vs. LSU is a pick.

-c

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
LSU would crush Oregon. ... OU vs. LSU is a pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you believe that Oklahoma is far better than Oregon? Explain how.

I'd make the neutral-field line Oregon -3.5.

[Post-Oak]

West Virginia

@ Cinci U -6.5 69.1%
U Conn (-14) (83.0%)
Pitt -25 (93%)

So I have WVU as 53.3% to win out.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
1. LSU would crush Oregon.

2. LSU would win against Kansas.

3. OU vs. LSU is a pick.

-c

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant first post. Sick level, dude. Is LSU a lock v Oregon?

[iggymcfly]

Hey Naj, I'll take Kansas or Oklahoma vs. Arizona State for $500 assuming they meet in a bowl game. Deal? It should be +EV for you if the Big XII's as bad as you say.