UFC 76

[Tornado69]

Any links out there yet ? Anyone know the line on the Forrest/Shogun fight ? Anyone thinking -400 and below is a solid bet for Shogun ? Forrest strength is stand up but I don't see how he stands a shot against Shogun at standup.

[MikeyPatriot]

Did you even try going to the betting sites? The 76 lines have been up just as long as 75.

Jon Fitch -115
Diego Sanchez -115

Mauricio Rua -325
Forrest Griffin +250

Chuck Liddell -450
Keith Jardine +300

Courtesy of Bodog

[igetbadbeat]

Book maker

UFC 76: - ANAHEIM CALIFORNIA - $250 LIMIT -8:00 PM 32571 KEITH JARDINE - - +270
32572 CHUCK LIDDELL - - -330

8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

8:00 PM 32575 FORREST GRIFFIN - - +290
32576 MAURICIO RUA - - -360

8:00 PM 32577 THIAGO TAVARES - - +125
32578 TYSON GRIFFIN - - -155

[rsigley]

i like how bodog puts up ufc lines weeks before events, but can't put up ncaaf football lines til the day before most of the time

and baseball lines sometimes hours before the game starts

[Tornado69]

There's only 2 sites I bet on that I really follow/trust .. I would like to be able to transfer $ around to different sites but god damn neteller ruined that for me and I haven't really wanted to trust any other companies since then. Lines seem to jump really good the day or 2 before the fight anyone think Shogun might get under -300 ? To maybe -280 ? -250 ?

[DannyOcean_]

If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.

Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.

Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.

Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.

Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Shogun's style is especially high variance considering he has only lost once in the past 4 years.

Not saying laying that much chalk is good here, just disagreeing with that statement.

[jono]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough, but at -325 I'm all over this

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forrest Griffin

14-4-0

Wins
3 (T)KOs
6 Submissions
5 Decisions

Losses
2 (T)KOs
2 Decisions

Mauricio Shogun Rua

16-2-0

Wins
13 (T)KOs
1 Submission
2 Decisions

Losses
1 (T)KO
1 Submission

Let's look into those a little bit. Forrest is 5-2 in the UFC with a close loss to Tito that he could have won, a loss to Jardine that I haven't seen, a close win against Bonnar at the TUF finale that I thought Bonnar won, and most recently a decision win against Hector Ramirez that I also haven't seen.

For as much as he likes to throw, he only has 3 wins by T(KO) (with one by cut). It doesn't appear he has enough punching power to knock guys out. He has 6 submissions, only one of which has come in the UFC. I would be shocked to see Griffin sub Rua here.

Shogun, on the other hand, went 12-1 in Pride. His only loss was a freak accident against Coleman (did Shogun fight as a HW here?) with wins over Alistair Overeem x2, Nakamura, Randleman, Rogerio Nogueira, and Rampage. He stops almost 90% of his fights (with his decisions coming against Nakamura and Nogueira), and 11 of his fights are stopped before the 5 minute mark.

[ QUOTE ]
How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, how many?

Cro Cop lost to Gonzaga because he had no answers for elbows on the ground and the cage. He lost to Kongo because he broke a rib in round 1, probably wasn't there mentally, and probably is on the downside of his career.

Sylvia lost to Couture because Randy is right up there with Fedor in terms of gameplanning.

Gomi lost to a (very underrated) Nick Diaz in a slug fest that he obviously didn't train for.

Arona and Rogerio lost to an apparent horse in Sokoudjou.

Serra beat GSP in one of the few fights that still looks crazy months later.

I agree with you that fights are probably more high variance than we like to think, but I don't agree with your assessment of the fight.

[DannyOcean_]

Mikey,

Your points are very good, and i don't dispute them. Shogun has a god-like resume. Forrest does not. Let me see if I can just be more eloquent in my reasoning than I was before.

Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.

It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.

Secondly, shogun is a banger. He's a terrific banger, as evidenced by his record, but this style still seems to me to be very high variance compared to other styles. When you move forward and throw with abandon, you can always get caught.

Also, Forrest seems to love this type of fight. Forrest can be caught, as his Jardine loss shows, but fundamentally, he loves to brawl. Shogun may be better at it, but he's not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone. CroCop was thought of as a better striker than Kongo, but the fight was dangerous because he wasn't putting Kongo out of his comfort zone, so Kongo had a real chance, more than what the bookies gave him. I think the same thing is true with forrest. He'll be fine in a brawl, and although he might lose he has a definite shot. I call this maybe a 70/30 fight.

So anyways the following things
High variance of two 'brawlers' fighting
+
High variance when switching orgs.
+
Shogun not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone

make me believe this line should be closer than it is.