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#121
09-23-2007, 04:52 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, especially if the dog is the bigger man (Kongo, Jardine, Forrest, Rampage v Chuck) , and do just fine. [/ QUOTE ] That's not a bad notion. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to gauge before they fight a lot of the time. You could go by weight for the heavyweights, but who would have thunk Couture, giving up x pounds, would manhandle Gonzaga in what basically looked like a strength-based competition. [/ QUOTE ] Its a little weaker I think, betting the bigger man, for the heavyweights. I think strength plays less of a role in a fight when both men are basically super big and strong. I always think of the Monson v. Silvia fight where a strong wrestler did poorly. However, Randy did use his strength advantage when he was a big dog vs. Silvia (who needs steroids to be strong, but a weak giant still quite strong) I agree, as soon as they get in the ring, you can always see who is bigger, but by then its too late. GSP v Kos, GSP, I know he wasn't a dog but my point is he was much the bigger man when they had the staredown, it was pretty obvious that Kos was going to have trouble. Fitch vs. Sanchez, on the other hand, was probably an easier call. Sanchez (Kos and Fitch) and the Count (Hammer) will always have trouble IMO vs world class wrestlers. But if the dog is weaker, especially below heavyweight, you get Hughes vs. Gracie blowouts. 
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#122
09-23-2007, 05:06 PM
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Re: UFC 76
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Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, .... [/ QUOTE ] about 1 year ago you could have said the exact opposite.
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#123
09-23-2007, 05:18 PM
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Re: UFC 76
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[ QUOTE ] If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too. [/ QUOTE ] lol... calling my reasoning weak isn't being bashed? Especially when said reasoning is exactly correct? One of my main points that was bashed "MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better." People gave me crap for this but i still believe it. Look at all the upsets happening this year. And certain people go back and rewrite history (for instance, people claiming GG over CC was not really an upset at the time lol), but i believe people are putting way too much money on big favorites all around, especially with strikers. Also especially with Pride/UFC contests. Look how different Shogun looked. You can't tell me that changing to the Octagon with a cage, different rules, etc didnt matter... He was just a different looking fighter. Since that is always a possibility, and has manifested itself in numerous fights where people "don't look like themselves" (shogun, CC, gomi) higher variance fights. Also, people talked about how shogun would win this fight 95% of the time and would outbox the crap out of forrest. I countered that i thought forrest's stand up was better than everyone else did. People continue to say "ZOMG Shogun has 5x better stand up" I'd say i feel pretty damn good. I don't see much weak reasoning. [/ QUOTE ] Dude, people who were picking forrest are way overrating their picks. The only way you pick forrest is if you know Shogun isnt in his normal condition. He gassed, in the UFC, u lose if u gas. No way he ever beats shogun again and this might be the best thing to ever happen to shogun. He wont ever come in the octagon again out of shape and unprepared for a hard 3 rounds. SEE - GSP vs Serra, sometimes these YOUNG great 25 year olds need these hard learned lessons to progress.
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#124
09-23-2007, 05:22 PM
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Re: UFC 76
And for the Card as a whole
I just think this proves that what makes the UFC GREAT is its unpredictability. A title fight will always be exciting in the sense that who knows who is gonna win. Sad that judges gave it to Fitch, actually thought Diego did a tad more to win it. But 30-27, ca mon. Sad to see my fav fighter in shogun lose but this fight was not about Forrest winnings, it was Shogun losing. He was Gassed, after the first round, actually towards the end of the first round, I was like [censored], how is he gonna make it 3 rounds. Hes got nothing in the tank, whether it was nerves combined with uncoditioning. Or he didnt train, remember he just got married and hasnt fought since feb. Anyways, I just hope Shogun sticks with UFC like i am sure he will. He will be the greatest fighter in the history of MMA when its all said and done. What this fight paves the way for is now everybody he faces will be going against a conditioned shogun. GL vs that shogun. I would equate this to Shogun was preparing for a preseason game, and forrest a regular season game in the NFL. oh wellz, live and learn. Good thing hes got wins over EVERYBODY in pride........ to make us forget this ever happened once he shows himself and does his thing.
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#125
09-23-2007, 05:29 PM
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Re: UFC 76
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Sad that judges gave it to Fitch, actually thought Diego did a tad more to win it. But 30-27, ca mon. [/ QUOTE ] wow. i was dumbfounded when i heard it was a split decision. no way can you give diego two rounds of that fight. also i overvalued tavares's performance vs. black and undervalued griffin's performance vs. guida. betting tyson was clearly right there.
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#126
09-23-2007, 05:37 PM
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Re: UFC 76
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Sad to see my fav fighter in shogun lose but this fight was not about Forrest winnings, it was Shogun losing. [/ QUOTE ] I'm so sick of people saying this. If shogun just gassed, how did forrest outbox him, have a better clinch, do more damage from GnP, have more dominant positions, and have more effective leg kicks IN THE FIRST ROUND? Because Forrest won the first round super easy, and gassing had nothing to do with it. Shogun would have gotten beat badly even if he didn't gas. Making excuses for Shogun, for Cro Cop, for whoever is just dumb. It's one of the reasons i lost some respect for GSP, who after Serra beat him, said all of the sudden he wasnt 100% in that fight. Just admit defeat. Sometimes good fighters lose to a guy who just beat the crap out of them. Give props to the fighter who wins, don't fantisize that "if shogun wasnt getting married and didnt gas and trained properly duh he would win".
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#127
09-23-2007, 05:51 PM
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Re: UFC 76
u obv are some couch potato who cant compare being pysically fit and conditioned to just be physically fit and unconditioned.
Props to forrest but if the Bills beat the Pats this week, im not gonna say bills are the better team. Im not worried at all and this loss doesnt really affect me. I know why he lost, i know how hes gonna learn from this. Better for his long term ufc career. He basically just got humiliated, worst performance of his career, wasnt conditioned , didnt even have enough energy to perform his lifelong craft. Best thing that ever happened to him, and yes it was because he was like 25% that he lost and obv the guy whos gonna fight the best in the world will be 110% it aint easy being on top and not having that fire. How hes gonna make sure he always lights the candle before each fight. U HAD ZERO legit basis for picking shogun. u just got lucky. I dont equate this to crocop at all. and hes my second fav fighter. I do equate it to GSP vs Serra peace
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#128
09-23-2007, 06:44 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
u obv are some couch potato who cant compare being pysically fit and conditioned to just be physically fit and unconditioned. Props to forrest but if the Bills beat the Pats this week, im not gonna say bills are the better team. Im not worried at all and this loss doesnt really affect me. I know why he lost, i know how hes gonna learn from this. Better for his long term ufc career. He basically just got humiliated, worst performance of his career, wasnt conditioned , didnt even have enough energy to perform his lifelong craft. Best thing that ever happened to him, and yes it was because he was like 25% that he lost and obv the guy whos gonna fight the best in the world will be 110% it aint easy being on top and not having that fire. How hes gonna make sure he always lights the candle before each fight. U HAD ZERO legit basis for picking shogun. u just got lucky. I dont equate this to crocop at all. and hes my second fav fighter. I do equate it to GSP vs Serra peace [/ QUOTE ] Amen, I'm pretty sure DannyOcean said he blocked me so he can't read my posts and I'm 100% happy about that. He's convinced he had the proper reasoning for picking Kongo and Forrest, and while I agree with his Kongo bet in 20/20 hindsight, I feel forrest @ +300 is still marginal value at best and not a goldmine. Shogun came into that fight looking like absolute trash...absolute trash. Forrest came out looking like the best Forrest ever, and he did what he said. He used Shogun's moves on shoguns, ie the omaplata and the takedown. But that doesn't mean his reasons for picking forrest were sound. It is of course true MMA isn't a science and that's why we go over possible scenario's and outcomes and try to loosely put %'s on them and come up with an overall feel. DO's reasoning was one based on variance...well you have to account for the variance or else you are just betting to get lucky. Sure we can't do statistical analysis like in baseball and account for misconceptions (IE, lucky hits, unlucky batters which is really already accounted for in the %'s) Also, how often is Crocop going to break his rib in the first round? How often is he going to get kneed in the nuts twice? How often is forrest going to come in such great shape? How often is shogun going to come in such horrible shape? It doesn't matter who shows up to fight, it matters what the likelihood of them showing up like that is. That's the bottomline when you're betting. And this "give credit to the man who won" BS. The logical fallacy is so obvious. Anyone who doesn't give credit to Forrest for the win is INSANE. Forrest came out like a monster and earned the greatest win of his career. That is so obvious. But the person who gives credit to himself for getting lucky is just as insane.
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#130
09-23-2007, 08:04 PM
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Re: UFC 76
I didn't hear it, but I read that Rogan made an interesting point about certain Pride fighters. He mentioned that it seemed like a lot of Pride guys fight at a more natural weight, while most everyone in the UFC is cutting a bunch. For instance, I think Randy said before his fight with Gonzaga that Forrest was walking around at something like 240 at the time.
The big 3 Pride HWs are all relatively small HWs who could all conceivably fight at 205. Big Nog's twin fights there and Fedor has a lot of water weight he could lose. Cro Cop would be tougher because his body looks pretty cut, but it's not out of the question for him to shed a bit of muscle. It's an interesting theory, though Rogan has been going a bit nuts about cutting weight recently.
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