Rate my live BR plan

[badhandoop]

That's pretty close in a lot of spots, but a few are off:

$50,000
-15,000 (tax)
- 4,000 (rent) - Live with roomate.
- 1,000 (utilities) - Live with roomate.
- 2,000 (debt/expenses: cell phone, cable, internet, credit card, etc.)
- 1,000 (car)
- 2,000 (insurance:car,health,home/renter's)
- 2,500 (food+clothes)
- 1,000 (living supplies + entertainment)
===========
$21,500

Also, keep in mind 50K is a conservative estimate. If I run even moderately well for 5-6 months, I can be adequately rolled for 40-80+ games. Not to mention that my yearly surplus of money would be evenly split between my BR and nest egg.

Full time work is always an option, even though I despise the thought.

Thanks for all the advice so far. It's helped me streamline some of the iffy calculations I've had.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
That's pretty close in a lot of spots, but a few are off:

$50,000
-15,000 (tax)
- 4,000 (rent) - Live with roomate.
- 1,000 (utilities) - Live with roomate.
- 2,000 (debt/expenses: cell phone, cable, internet, credit card, etc.)
- 1,000 (car)
- 2,000 (insurance:car,health,home/renter's)
- 2,500 (food+clothes)
- 1,000 (living supplies + entertainment)
===========
$21,500

[/ QUOTE ]

$1,000/yr for a car+gas+maintenance+repairs? Maybe if it's paid for and you only drive it around the block. I spend over $1,000/yr on gas alone.

Your $2k on insurance doesn't include health insurance. That's a huge risk, as noted by a previous poster. Health insurance is expensive. Hospital/doctor/prescription costs are even more expensive.

You may still want a roommate when you're 30... but I doubt it. You may still be fine with a 1,000sqft apartment when you're 30... but probably not.

Regardless, with ~$20k/yr surplus, it will only take you 40 years to reach your $800k retirement figure. Not too bad, but you have little to no leeway in your figures. Any little thing goes wrong, and the plan doesn't work.

I think your plan will work for a few years... until either a) something unexpected happens (marriage, health problem...), or b) you want a lifestyle change. It may then be hard for you to find work being out for a long time.

[Cactus Jack]

You seem like a very smart person. You're smart enough to know if you've made a mistake. You're still young enough to outrun a mistake if you've made one. Add 40% to your calculations because we always underestimate expenses, and then go for it. If you crash, you'll have good stories to tell your children in 30 years. Have a good time.

[badhandoop]

I buy all my cars with cash. I've had 3 cars in about 8 years, and I have a $1,000 or less rule. My latest one is a 90 Corolla. Those things run forever.

I have factored in health insurance. I have a friend who gets me a good rate, and my car insurance is low because of my clean driving record.

And there is no way my income is staying stagnant. I am planning to move up according to BR increases. If I maintain a moderate WR for the next 3 years, I should be able to move to games that net me 100K+/yr in income. Which brings me to an important question:

Will there be enough 50-100+ LHE games for me to constantly move up in the timeframe I'm wanting? I figure by 7 year mark, if I'm not playing 100-200+, I'll just take whatever savings I have and aggressively invest.

Anybody know about how often you would've find those kinds of LHE games pre-poker boom?

[Bulbarainey]

i hear thailand is great for the most part, but i couldnt imagine living there with the huge tranny population. i live not that far from santa monica blvd which is not that far from trannies and it makes me want to move far, far away... where you dont see that kind of stuff

[Cactus Jack]

non-sequitur alert?

wft?

[magoo]

You haven't done an adequate survey of poker rooms, spreading "limit" games which give you the best opportunity to actually make some money. Plus, that situation is frequently fluid. For example, IMHO Tunica is a "weekend" type place.

[MicroBob]

OP - there is no such thing as 30/60 limit in Tunica.
To my knowledge, it never spreads.

You will find some higher limit games during the times the major tournaments are in town.
So January rocks.
There might be another 2 week stretch in Sept or something when the WSOP-circuit is in town.

Otherwise, there is the 20/40 limit game at the Horseshoe and that is it.

You will pretty much NEVER find a 30/60 game. Definitely not at the Grand...LOL.

The highest limit action they will spread at the Grand is 3/6 typically.

For the special room-rate at their hotel you'll need to play 5 or 6 hours a day in their room there.


2/5 NL runs there though and can be reasonably juicy.

Also, be aware that the hotels they will put you in at the Grand are across the property from the casino.
You will have to ride a shuttle back and forth to get from your hotel to the casino.


I'm guessing you haven't been to Tunica and looked into this in person or else you would know you just can't show up and expect to play 30/60.

I think there are a few New Orleans Katrina-refugees who came to Tunica and are doing something similar to your plan at Gold Strike and Horseshoe in the 2/5 NL games. Not positive about that though.

[somapopper]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
50K is actually really good, considering I'm going to do some kind of enjoyable part-time work during my off summer months.

[/ QUOTE ]

50K - taxes - mortgage/rent - utilities - bills(debt/expenses) - car(payment/gas/repairs) - insurance(car/health/home/renter's) - food - clothes - living supplies - entertainment - savings - bankroll support/increases = ??

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, this is getting ridiculous. Obviously a single guy in his 20s can live on 50k extraordinarily easily. And it's not going to come as some kind of shock to the guy that he's gotta buy food and clothes.

He's got at the very least a 6 month nut, and his bankroll requirements are conservative (the only game he's not rolled for is the 30/60 which everybody agrees is going to go sparadically anyway).

If you've got the 45k just go do it man, you're all set.

Oh, and to whoever said "keep an eye on your win rate" I'm all for him looking at his winrate before he starts the whole thing, but obviously once he's up and running, he can't be constantly readjusting his bankroll requirements over his winrate in the past month or two.

edit to add: living at the hotel is super yuck though. That's way too expensive. You need to get a place.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]

Oh, and to whoever said "keep an eye on your win rate" I'm all for him looking at his winrate before he starts the whole thing, but obviously once he's up and running, he can't be constantly readjusting his bankroll requirements over his winrate in the past month or two.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you're right. Winrate doesn't converge nearly fast enough to adjust based on monthly results. This was before he said he had 1200 hours of solid winning play under his belt so the statement was mostly a warning about overestimating one's own skill.

Of course one should still adjust the stakes they play based on BR fluctuations.