Special Thread For Chen-Ankenman Mathematics of Poker

[David Sklansky]

I expect many comments and questions about that book. I'll reply here.

[goofball]

I've never heard of it. Do you consider it worth reading?

[alphatmw]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never heard of it. Do you consider it worth reading?

[/ QUOTE ] how is this not self explanatory

[WelshMackem]

[ QUOTE ]
how is this not self explanatory

[/ QUOTE ]
This, or the thread itself?


Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Maulik]

DS,

We have a book forum.

[KCMACK15]

Mr. Sklansky, I haven't heard of the book, but I do have a question about the mathmatics. I was playing online last night in a cash game at Full Tilt. It was a micro limit. I was dealt three consecutive hands of pocket two's, and on all three consecutive hands I FLOPPED a set. I know many of the readers of this will not believe me but if you would like I do have the room and time down that this occurred. Again these were consecutive hands. I was curious about the probablity of this happening. I did not have the formula or the software to run it, but WE (office) came up with approx. 1 in 8,000,000,000,000,000.
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
PS thanks for all your great books, they have helped me greatly.
Jeff Mc.

[mjkidd]

[ QUOTE ]
Mr. Sklansky, I haven't heard of the book, but I do have a question about the mathmatics. I was playing online last night in a cash game at Full Tilt. It was a micro limit. I was dealt three consecutive hands of pocket two's, and on all three consecutive hands I FLOPPED a set. I know many of the readers of this will not believe me but if you would like I do have the room and time down that this occurred. Again these were consecutive hands. I was curious about the probablity of this happening. I did not have the formula or the software to run it, but WE (office) came up with approx. 1 in 8,000,000,000,000,000.
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
PS thanks for all your great books, they have helped me greatly.
Jeff Mc.

[/ QUOTE ]

A flopped set 3 times in a row would be (3/51)^3*(1/8.5)^3, or about 3 million to one.

A flopped set of the same rank three times would be (3/51)^3*(4/52)^2*(1/8.5)^3, or about 500 million to one.

A flopped set of deuces three times would be (4/52)^3*(4/52)^3*(1/8.5)^3, or about 6.6 billion to one.

You were only off about 7 orders of magnitude. That's not so much, in the grand scheme of things.

[David Steele]

If you are in fact a reliable witness, then the probability is very close to certainty, although very unlikely to occur again. The probability of some other hand sequence amazing you is quite high though.

D.

[WelshMackem]

That is a superb answer and reminds me of one of Richard Feynman's favourite lecture openers, something along the lines of "I saw a car with registration number MC118GS on the way in to work today, what are the chances of that"

[jogsxyz]

[ QUOTE ]
That is a superb answer and reminds me of one of Richard Feynman's favourite lecture openers, something along the lines of "I saw a car with registration number MC118GS on the way in to work today, what are the chances of that"

[/ QUOTE ]

Was that your neighbor's car?