200NL - flop 2nd nuts - bet sizing question

[moldman]

This table is bad and basically trying to see cheap flops and have people stack off with middle pair, which I'd seen done already.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $80.05
MP1: $193
MP2: $288.40
CO: $199
BTN: $57.40
Hero (SB): $355.60
BB: $81.20
UTG: $105.30

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, BTN folds, Hero calls $1, BB checks

Flop: ($8) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $12</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $12, <font color="red">Hero raises to ??

<font color="black"> I thought about pushing repping a draw, but didn't want to make a draw fold really. Anyway, what is the "right" number here? And, what is the plan for a turn if we raise and a diamond shows up or an 9, K, or A turns??

[eMedia]

He's probably got 2 pair or something like AQ/AJ in this case. I would raise to $30 and call a shove.

[Effen]

You have the 3rd nuts, pop to $30ish and gogogo.

[moldman]

Oops... my bad in counting nuts. In my mind, it was the nuts.

[pterodactyl_]

30 is fine but I'd make it more like 40 and try to get it in here because there are a lot of turn cards that can give him a better hand or kill your action. Raising more will make your turn decision easier and if these players are all very bad then I'm sure hes not folding middle pair for either size raise.

[vaughn345]

if they're all bad then yeah make it 40ish or a more donkish over bet since CO doesn't look like he will ever fold his K and BB thinks he has the nuts so will probably shove all-in. want to be as pot-committed as possible with idiot straights since so many cards on the turn kill your hand or your action.

[CallMeJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Oops... my bad in counting nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's ok. I think we are all programmed to stop at 2.

Raise 40, call shove on flop.

If CO folds, shove any turn against BB.

If CO calls, i probably slow down. There is a good it will be a scare card for him too.

[TJ Eckleburg12]

I think you're making a mistake by re-raising the flop.

As has been mentioned, lots of cards that are bad for your hand can come off on the turn. Any 9-A is terrible for your hand, and we'd just be committing ourselves out of position to what could be a lost cause.

Why not just call the flop raise, with the intention of check-raising all-in on the safe turn? It would maximize your equity advantage against two pairs and sets, because they only have 1 card left to catch up with you when the money goes in.

[GT30]

Raise to $62, your straight is very vulnerable. Hope you aren't up against K9.

[AllTheCheese]

$30 is terrible. Pot is already $38 and you make it $18 more with bottom straight on megadynamic board? You enjoy giving 3.25 to 1 to opps (i.e. correct odds) with a super vulnerable hand? $45 at bare minimum here.