gutshot vs 3 bettor

[NinaWilliams]

Villain is 17/14 over like 80 hands or so in this particular hand but I dont think its relevant to the question that I have. This hand is from deathdonkey's coaching video on DC. He said the flop is a good spot to raise to fold out an A high hand. I realized that I dont ever raise in this spot, and I think its kind of spewy. Do you ever raise the flop here? If so, under what conditions?

Preflop Hero raises K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the HJ, folded to bb who 3 bets, Hero calls

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bb bets

[exlka]

first of all the 3 betting range of this guy isn't all that wide. So which hand would fold to our flop raise right away ? Most A High hand would certainly call...
I think we are getting 3-bet here on the flop way too often.
Besides, what are we doing on the turn ? Checking behind or fire again?
I'd just call the flop and probably give up depending on the turn card...

[HouseCalls]

I think this depends on his AF but more to the point on how likely he is to 3bet you without a big hand in his spot. If his 3 bet will mean that he has a big hand then raising can have one of 3 possible good results: 1. He folds and you win without a made hand. 2. He calls and checks the turn and you can take a free card on the turn (or fire again if you think your folding equity warrants) 3. He treys and you know you are crushed. At this point you can call and fold the turn UI with no worries of having folded the best hand.

I would not do this every time but I think with a gutshot plus two overcards this is a prety good spot.

[MartynasD]

call and fold if turn won`t help u.raise from BB PF,most of time means it`s going to showdown.and u have nothing to show.wait for beter hand and beter situation to kick him back

[Tryptamean]

I think any Ace worse than A8 should be folding immediately. Whether this player will make that fold, or 3bet those hands preflop, is unknown. AT and AQ/AK will probably peel and fold, but maybe he takes AK/AQ to showdown. Again its unclear.

A pp less than 88 may or may not fold. It may take a river bluff to get these hands out. KQ may also take a river bet to fold.

All in all, it just seems like too many hands from his range will get to the river, and I certainly don't think a river bet will be profitable.

A benefit of this play is that you give yourself decent implied odds on spiking a Q, as some hands in his range will go extra bets on the turn or river.

If I do make this play, I'm betting any blank turn, because there are a lot of hands that peel and fold. I guess the only card I do not fire on the turn is an A.

[guenttrs]

Given villains stats and that he 3 bet from BB this is a fold for me. When villain 3bets from sb he could want to eliminate BB but a raise in BB vs HJ is a clear valuebet.

Villains range could be : TT+ AJs+ AQo. I doubt he will 3bet Ax-ATs-AJo.

With this range Villain hold Overpair, TPTK, or OC and a cant see him fold OC here.

I would fold ths flop.

[sharpie]

I rarely do this, but maybe I should do this more. A pretty big portion of his range is AK/AQ. If villain is observant you have to be the type to raise your made hands on the flop which I often don't do.

[HoneyBadger]

17/14 is often a type of player who will not lay down AK, even UI. I'd rather do this with a hand where we can actually beat AK. I think peeling and folding turn UI is better. Also, if you raise and you do hit you just killed your own implied odds. So you're putting in 2 bet, maybe even 3 for a gutter. I don't think this is the best spot to push him of his hand... I do this, but not here. (I sooner think of something like, UTG raises, I'm the only caller in BB, flop is ragged, I flopped a gutshot and a low overcard, so I check-raise him and lead the turn.)

[timoK]

I checked the preflop raise out of BB for a few tight winning regulars in my DB:
total raise / raise out of BB
16/8
13/9
14/11

so if villain would raise top 10% of his hands that would leave you with 40% equity (88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo)

but villain 3-bets so his range is somehow tighter.

what part of this range will fold to a raise?

[dacannman]

I agree that his range is very strong here and so we shouldn’t be trying to get him to fold.

So I call the flop every time. But thinking about this more, and because 6max has turned me into a maniacal calling station, maybe we should call the turn as well…

Consider this math. If I’m wrong, let me know:

8.5 small bets on turn (6.5 preflop, 2 on flop). Villian then bets turn, making it 10.5 small bets. Its gonna cost us 2 small bets to call. That’s 5.25:1 to call turn.

5.25:1 means we need about 8.76 outs to make the call, assuming we get no more money even if we hit.

8.76 outs isn’t unrealistic. If out gutshot outs and all of out pair outs (Ts and Ks) are good, then that’s 10 outs. That would be more than enough to call turn. But obviously we don’t have a full 10 outs every time because a K could pair him as well (he may have AK), and he may have an over pair to our potential pair of Ts.

But even discounting our outs, we still may have enough here. If you discount the pair outs by half, then we have 7 outs (4 gutshot and 3 pair outs on average). 7 outs is probably enough because we will almost assuredly get more money on the river if we make out straight, and we will probably make one bet if we make the best hand with a pair.

I think the turn is pretty darn close to a call. And because I like to be a tough opponent, I probably call here most of the time because its tougher on the villain if we appear to “never fold.”