trouble with overpair on the turn

[OXIO]

When the hand was played, ive seen villains stats as 16/7/2.5 . But only 15 hands logged.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($35.60)
CO ($19.02)
Button ($44.30)
SB ($68.32)
BB ($46.75)
UTG ($56.95)
UTG+1 ($88.63)
MP1 ($48.55)
Hero ($73.84)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 calls $2.

Flop: ($13.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button folds, UTG calls $8, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($29.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG calls $46.45 (All-In), Hero ?

Final Pot: $75.70

Call? Fold? / Why?

[Pokey]

I fold, but you messed this hand up long before you got to this point.

Preflop, your raise was too light. The general rule is 4xBB+1/limper. With three people limping in front of you, an appropriate raise would have been $3.50, not $2.50. You offered the field odds that were too good, and they took it -- now you've got five people seeing a flop, which is not good for your queens.

Then, you get lucky enough to have a relatively safe flop. Barring an unlikely set, you've got a winner. When three people check to you, you bet into the five-way hand...less than 2/3rds the pot? I'd have made it $15 to go. That's WAY too many people for your hand to be happy; you've got to absolutely dive-bomb this flop to push out the looky-loos.

As played, I'd let this hand go on the turn. Twice now you've announced that you like your hand; twice now he's called. Then, when the board pairs he overbets the pot all-in. That's either a maniac making a HUGE stone-cold bluff, or it's someone who's got trips or a boat who is trying to extract tons of value out of you. Which is it? You don't have enough information to say. However, you know how often he's got to have junk for the call to be right: 46.45/(29.25+46.45) = 61.4% of the time. Even if this is a bluff HALF the time, calling is -EV. I can count on one hand the number of people I've seen who routinely bet 1.5xPot all-in with nothing, but I've seen MANY people who overbet with great hands to mimic a bluff. Sure, he MIGHT be bluffing, but if so, it's a good bluff, and you need to believe it.

Let it go, but protect your hand better next time.

[dazraf69]

Something tells me after Pokey's response there aint going to be much else said.

[dd323]

hmmm, I probably fold this too, but the turn bet certainly looks suspicious from the Villian. If villain has a draw he could be bluffing the scare card. you are getting 75-46 on this call, so he needs to be bluffing more than 1 time in 1.6 (or more than half the time) to make this call profitable.

I would definately make a note though.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold, but you messed this hand up long before you got to this point.

Preflop, your raise was too light. The general rule is 4xBB+1/limper. With three people limping in front of you, an appropriate raise would have been $3.50, not $2.50. You offered the field odds that were too good, and they took it -- now you've got five people seeing a flop, which is not good for your queens.

Then, you get lucky enough to have a relatively safe flop. Barring an unlikely set, you've got a winner. When three people check to you, you bet into the five-way hand...less than 2/3rds the pot? I'd have made it $15 to go. That's WAY too many people for your hand to be happy; you've got to absolutely dive-bomb this flop to push out the looky-loos.

As played, I'd let this hand go on the turn. Twice now you've announced that you like your hand; twice now he's called. Then, when the board pairs he overbets the pot all-in. That's either a maniac making a HUGE stone-cold bluff, or it's someone who's got trips or a boat who is trying to extract tons of value out of you. Which is it? You don't have enough information to say. However, you know how often he's got to have junk for the call to be right: 46.45/(29.25+46.45) = 61.4% of the time. Even if this is a bluff HALF the time, calling is -EV. I can count on one hand the number of people I've seen who routinely bet 1.5xPot all-in with nothing, but I've seen MANY people who overbet with great hands to mimic a bluff. Sure, he MIGHT be bluffing, but if so, it's a good bluff, and you need to believe it.

Let it go, but protect your hand better next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect.

[Grunch]

Not much to add to what Pokey said, but I do want to re-iterate something in order to drive this point home.

Your PF and flop mistakes were major mistakes. They were not play style choices, and they were not small errors. They were big-time screw ups. Do not understimate the signifigant impact bet sizes have on correct strategy &amp; vice versa.

[poincaraux]

Nice response, Pokey!

Most of the time something like this comes up, people make short responses like "bet more pre-flop, bet more on the turn, fold as played." That's OK, but I hope people will sometimes link to this thread in addition to that in the future.

[OXIO]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold, but you messed this hand up long before you got to this point.

... some good stuff...

Let it go, but protect your hand better next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]