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Old 11-17-2007, 12:07 PM
Babalatexi Babalatexi is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Finland
Posts: 157
Default Re: 25nl: WTF???

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and call a push just because I really want to know what he has.

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A+ for metagame purposes also because it'll be really interesting to see what he has!

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This is basically the number 1 reason I was a breakeven/losing player for my first 100k hands.

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I haven't even played that many hands =/. Anyhow, some of the humour in that post was poorly constructed I guess, the latter is a joke and the 1st one is not the reason I want to raise, just pointing out that I really do want to know what he has but the reason I raise his bet is because I believe I'm ahead. I understand what you mean though but you interpreted my post wrong (perhaps I just didn't make it obvious enough, mb).

Anyways, my point still stands. All we know about villain is that he's bad. Now generally, what I've learned from bad players is that they typically milk their good hands. Some people check/call a set until the river, others min-bet 2 streets with a flopped flush - all in all, they do anything to keep others in the pot (often resulting in them being outdrawn). This villain does NOT seem to want a call. He bets 8 into a 3something pot, wtf? How often does he really do this with a straight or a set, the hands that we are behind of? Very rarely, I think. He might have an overpair so it's part of his range but he's a VPIP 40, his range is huge here. FD's, OP's, 6x, 2x, 5x, 2p, straight draws (with gappers too), two overcards etc. - basically I'm pretty sure most of his range is very weak here and we're ahead of that.

Now, why raise? Mainly because I'm pretty sure we're ahead but also to protect our hand. It's hard to play the turn (and VERY expensive) when it's an overcard more than half the time, a diamond pretty often too. Tough to call a big bet even though there's a very good chance we're ahead. Of course villain might check his 5x or W/E on the turn but I believe it's much better to battle this on the flop when we're pretty sure we're ahead of his range (I am). A villain like this will probably go to the felt on the flop with his Tp or maybe even a FD, who knows. It wouldn't even be bad to scoop teh pot right here, his bet is so big. A small problem is the player behind us who called our pf raise. He probably doesn't have the straight which is the worst holding for us but he could have a set. However, obviously most of the time he doesn't have either so in my opinion, raising isn't a mistake on our part.

Pokey brought up a good point about being deep and therefore being especially cautious about out stack. While I agree somewhat to this, I don't think now is the right time to back away. There's just no way an overbet this big by a fish is the goods a majority of the time, I just don't see that happening ever. Hence, I'm pretty sure our equity here is way positive and we ought to raise/get it AI on the flop.

WAY tl;dr.
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