QQ vs. Cold 4bet

[KLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
319*.4 + .6*-229 = -9.8

x(90) + (1-x)(-9.8) = 0
x = ~10%

means he has to be bluffing > 10% to make shoving +EV.

If he's bluffing 20% of the time here, we stand to net ~$18 in EV.




I wish I could do a reasonable EV calculation for calling, but there are so many factors that I think it would be rather difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]

does "bluffing" mean 3betting TT/JJ sometimes?

[tubasteve]

klj: considering JJ has worse equity against QQ than A2o which would certainly be a bluff, then i think the answer to your question is yes.

edit: then again, he may mean the times he folds to our shove, since hes not calling with 'bluffs' but i didnt read the calcs that closely and im about to fall asleep in my chair

[BigMac1082]

I shove here and expect to see AK+ KK+ with the occasional bluff or JJ or other QQ.

A push here is probably neutral EV at best, but if this is against a reg, I want to show that I will stack off pre with hands other than KK and AA so that when they have QQ or AK and I 5bet all-in, they have to call.

[Chicago Twister]

ugh, i really want to fold. i think we are at best a coinflip

[sh58]

people do this with AK alot, and he could be bluffing if he is good, so i shove here

[sh58]

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, because we're a bit deep, shoving is -EV if his calling range is KK+,AKo,AKs. Basically we've got 229 behind with a 90 dollar overlay which means we'd be getting 1.4:1 on a shove when he's calling. 1.4:1 requires approx. 42% equity and QQ has only 40% equity against that calling range.

So don't say shove, cause he's not calling JJ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we can't shove then fold.

also it can be +EV to shove as we win a nice pot if he folds

[optionsguy]

this is def one of those hands where it's better to be OOP so we can shove the flop to reduce his FE because like OP said, we can't fold on any flop once we call pre

[spivey]

This is a fold. Almost nobody cold 4 bets OOP with less than AA/KK/AK. You're not really deep, so if he were going to 4 bet with AK, he's probably going to shove since he's OOP.

[Redgrape]

I think its semi close but shove.

[holland3r]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold. Almost nobody cold 4 bets OOP with less than AA/KK/AK. You're not really deep, so if he were going to 4 bet with AK, he's probably going to shove since he's OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know villain is capable of 4 betting here with more than that range vs me. I shove here.