AQs 2 spots off final table (deep) in FT $24+2 KO

never sleep · #1 11-24-2007, 10:07 PM

so yea, no hand history or number stats, but a little bit of background info, it was a 741 person knockout tourney with 11 players left, about to see a 85% pay jump at final table (9 players)- villain was very shortstacked about 20 minutes prior to the hand in question and went on a bit of a desperate, aggressive rush, shoving in large (or entire) amounts of his stack in preflop 5-6 times that i can remember, getting called down twice and dubbing each time with a weak ace and a small pocket pair, stealing blinds two or three times from mid and late position and folding once from mid position to a RR out of the big blind. my table image was solid and dangerous as a panzer at the time, so apart from the fact therefore that suspicion of weakness is not a factor in his decision, it's kind of irrelevant.

so anyway, here goes a condensed but suitable version, the table is now playing 6handed-

avg stack: 135,000
hero (seat 1): 78,000
villain (seat 5): 81,000
blinds: 2,500/5,000 with antes

hero: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
- utg folds
- villain opens pot for 4x raise of 20k
- CO folds
- button folds
- hero shoves from small blind for 77k
- big blind folds
- villain snap calls and shows A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

and i'm sure you can figure out what happened from there

i like my play, the final table payout bump was really nice, the best % increase so far, but i wanted to win more than i wanted to just make final table...so without getting into my logic, i felt like my options here were thin at best, but i hate so much to get it in w/ AQ that i wanted to see what any of you guys thought. thanks.

erc007 · #2 11-25-2007, 02:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so yea, no hand history or number stats, but a little bit of background info, it was a 741 person knockout tourney with 11 players left, about to see a 85% pay jump at final table (9 players)- villain was very shortstacked about 20 minutes prior to the hand in question and went on a bit of a desperate, aggressive rush, shoving in large (or entire) amounts of his stack in preflop 5-6 times that i can remember, getting called down twice and dubbing each time with a weak ace and a small pocket pair, stealing blinds two or three times from mid and late position and folding once from mid position to a RR out of the big blind. my table image was solid and dangerous as a panzer at the time, so apart from the fact therefore that suspicion of weakness is not a factor in his decision, it's kind of irrelevant.

so anyway, here goes a condensed but suitable version, the table is now playing 6handed-

avg stack: 135,000
hero (seat 1): 78,000
villain (seat 5): 81,000
blinds: 2,500/5,000 with antes

hero: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
- utg folds
- villain opens pot for 4x raise of 20k
- CO folds
- button folds
- hero shoves from small blind for 77k
- big blind folds
- villain snap calls and shows A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

and i'm sure you can figure out what happened from there

i like my play, the final table payout bump was really nice, the best % increase so far, but i wanted to win more than i wanted to just make final table...so without getting into my logic, i felt like my options here were thin at best, but i hate so much to get it in w/ AQ that i wanted to see what any of you guys thought. thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overall...this analysis shows that you are thinking about variables that (could) affect your decision here. One thing that's missing however, is an opening range for villain. The other variables should be treated as secondary, and the main question should be: how much equity your hand has against his range. You should also consider/factor in the fact that u might not have much FE here (villain will get almost 2 to 1 to call your shove) as well. FWIW, i think this is a shove, but get into the habit of assigning a range, it's makes analyzing hands much more productive.

drcapn · #3 11-25-2007, 02:25 AM

I think you may have grossly understimated Villian's starting range on this hand, which tightened up after he got some stack back.

never sleep · #4 11-25-2007, 02:27 AM

well, i did have a range set up for him, i didnt want to get into the mechanics of my thought process but thats why i included the information about his recent activity.

i had ultimately put him on AJ or TT, i figured i didnt have much FE (although *possible*), but w/ 80k to my name and 130k avg stack, i figured it was a very clearcut and appropriate time to gamble...of course i ended up being completely wrong...but yea, doyle brunson would just fold it simply because its AQ. curious to see if anybody else would too.

getting it in with an unmade hand sucks balls

never sleep · #5 11-25-2007, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you may have grossly understimated Villian's starting range on this hand, which tightened up after he got some stack back.

[/ QUOTE ]

i fear you're right about this, but at the same time we each are still short w/ 80k relative to an avg 130k, so i have a little more trouble folding in this spot. i could put him on a pp < QQ easier than something like AJ here, but cold calling out of position just blows so hard.

personally i'm kinda stuck on the fence of fold or push here

and thanks for the comments so far, most of my friends dont play poker so its cool to have a discussion about a hand that i'm stuck thinking about

Unphased · #6 11-25-2007, 04:59 AM

4x is sketchy; but imallrinnnn

LSgambler · #7 11-25-2007, 06:21 AM

standard shove, i play it the same.

Dave D · #8 11-25-2007, 01:23 PM

Don't post results. Read the FAQ.

As others said, I like your post, it shows some good thinking.

The big danger sign with his hand is that he's opening for 1/4 of his stack. That's usually a huge tell that he's got AK at minimum, you'll often see QQ+. He's obviously never folding, unless he's really really bad, same goes for his hand strength. People do this to try to encourage action or something.

It's unclear from your post if he had been raising 20% of his stack and the like with much worse holdings. If yes, then obvious push.

hamnegger · #9 11-25-2007, 02:03 PM

think shaundeeb made this point awhile back and its worth mentioning: 4bb raise rule: they aren't folding preflop. there are exceptions. but with minimal fe aq is a loser id fold. i think we are assigning aq a value in a vaccuum. THIS situation it isn't good IMO.