please help me do the math of this

i actually suck at math, but i wanted to get some deeper inside into EV-Calculations

Following situation:

FT 24+2 Late, just before the money
blinds are 800/1600, 50? Ante, preflop pot is ~2,9k

CO (~30k)opens for 6800k, he was pretty nitty, but rather weak-tight.

I´m on the BU with 88

Now i do the following assumptions:

-he is raising ~19%
-he calls with the top 4,2% (AA-99,AK,AQs)which is ~22% of his range


If I get called i loose 69%
and win 31%

I came up with the following calculation, but i guess its wrong [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

EVpush= (78*9700)+(22*31*47000)+(21*69-22000)

[Willd]

Your EV calc is fairly close but you seem have mixed up final stack and what you win/lose, rather than working only with final stack sizes or only with net won/lost on hand. Assuming you have him covered then the EV calc should be:

.78*9700 + .22*.31*32900 - .21*.69*30000 = 5535

This ignores the possibility of blinds coming in behind you but based on your assumptions it is probably still easily +ev since they won't pick up monsters very often. Whether or not your assumptions are accurate is another matter, since raising 19% isn't particularly nitty and he will be getting ~1.6-1 to call your raise because he raised so much in the first place, meaning he might call a little looser than the range you assigned as well.

[Dunkman]

Umm how many chips do you have?

Second, is the 4.25x raise standard for this guy? That has to mean something, and he just put in like almost 25% of his stack, so I'm really not sure he's folding 78% of his raising range, that would be pretty odd given the raise size. The tough part about these EV calculations is getting the ranges right, the math is pretty simple. Decimal points in front of those percents would help...I'm not saying the ranges are right, but it would look like

.78*9700+.22*(.31*25000-.69*22000)

You don't win 47000 when you win the hand, but only lose 22000 when you lose. Finally, this is a shove with ATC if he's folding anything near that much of his range...unfortunately he's not folding that often. Actually, considering he raised to 6800, and you only have 22000, he's pretty much never folding unless he's an idiot.

big thanks so far, will have a look at the effective stacks later on, and respond then