#21
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at.
To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns. Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite. |
#22
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
Also, I said 33/60 in my post.
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#23
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
[ QUOTE ]
I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at. To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns. Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite. [/ QUOTE ] Ha, I think you edited that to "slight favorite" before I could quote. With that change I agree with your statement. Basically, it's close. The only point I was trying to make is that if I'm seeing more showdowns I must win at least one of them to justify the expense. You are right that you'd rather be 33/61 than 40/50, but I think 33/58 and 40/50 end up being pretty close, just stylistically different. I imagine you bet/fold more than me and I check/call more than you. |
#24
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I said 33/60 in my post. [/ QUOTE ] Yup. I was adjusting the numbers to make a point. I agree that you'd rather be 33/60 than 40/50. Basically, player 2 is picking 7 more showdowns that he loses in that case. |
#25
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
I know, I was just trying to show that saying things like "you should go to showdown X amount of the time" is quite silly.
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#26
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
Hoi, as Bryce said, these stats you provide doesn't say much.
But if you posted a screendump of the detailed stats page and perhaps some position stats, maybe someone could hint about possible leaks in your game. |
#27
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, mathematically speaking, yes you would rather be winning the same amount of showdowns but be paying less overall to see showdowns. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I see how you've framed the problem now. But I also think that someone with a 60% W$SD in aggressive online games would be playing sub-optimatially. |
#28
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck.
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#29
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
[ QUOTE ]
Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck. [/ QUOTE ] No way dude, that's awesome. What do you average at showdown (filter tab)? |
#30
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Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
[ QUOTE ]
Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite. [/ QUOTE ] You have to keep in mind the fact that player B might make some bet-sized mistakes, but player A is making pot-sized mistakes. Player A may well be in better shape if the bulk of his "bad" folds come on the flop, but if they are coming on the turn or river, player B is definately better off. I'd be interested to see a comparison of the FF FT FR and W$w/oSD numbers of ~40/50 and ~33/60 type players with substantially similar preflop stats. Also, I think it's a mistake to assume that the average pot sizes will be the same for these two players. |
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