88 overpair vs. pfr

[neurotiq]

UTG is 7/5/3.00. I'm dealt 88 in BB. UTG raises. MP1 & MP2 cold call. I call from BB.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet. UTG raises. Two folds. I 3bet. UTG caps. I call.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check. UTG bets. I call.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check. UTG bets. I call.

I'm really not sure about my play at all on any street. I think preflop my call is fine (correct me if I'm wrong), even though I'm likely far behind villain 5% pfr range. Still, the cold callers make it worth it to call for the possibility of a set, I think. I have an overpair throughout here, but villain is showing a lot of aggression. How should I be playing this?

[KitCloudkicker]

UTG is 7/5/3.00

UTG sounds like the nittiest of nits. over how many hands is the sample?

[neurotiq]

50 hands. not a huge sample.

[KitCloudkicker]

well 50 hands isnt much i agree, but judging from the VPIP and AF, it looks like this guy is waiting for JJ-AA and then betting/raising it on every street.


ps

i dont get the flop 3 bet, especially if you're committed to calling down if he caps.

[kerowo]

If those stats are correct and over more than 100 hands I'd call him down but figure you are beat.

From the top:
Pre-flop is fine but if this guy only raises big pp a fold wouldn't be the worst thing.

Flop:
Again, if the stats are over a lot of hands are pretty much done. The donk is only good if you had a hand you wanted UTG to help you protect by raising, which a 3 aggro is going to do with lots of hands.

The rest of the hand comes down to how good your read on UTG is.

edited after 50 hand read

I call him down from the flop but don't have much hope.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop is fine but if this guy only raises big pp a fold wouldn't be the worst thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

7:1, closing the action, perfect relative position if we spike a set. folding is awful.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop:
The donk is only good if you had a hand you wanted UTG to help you protect by raising, which a 3 aggro is going to do with lots of hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

how often does this guy really raise this with AK?

i really, really, really hate the "donk into the pfr" play. i hate it less if hero planned to 3bet the flop, but it's still pretty dumb, especially given the read.

as played, probably fold the turn. do you need to pay 2 more BBs to see that he has JJ+?

[bravos1]

With this guy's numbers, I agree that a fold PF is not the worst thing (3 betting is [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]), but def not as profitable as calling.. I doubt I could ever fold here PF w/ only 50 hands on him and your implied odds are good if you hit your set especially since he is so likely to hold a big PP here and with the others in as well.

I'm gonna check the flop and see the action. If UTG bets, and everyone else folds, I'm possibly looking to get to showdown cheaply, but may bet the river since many Aces are calling here to chop.

This is pseudo WA/WB, as if he has 99+ you are crushed, but if he has overs, you are a 3:1 favorite.

If you plan to c/c the river, betting the river is good since he will likely never be raising even if he has AA on a double paired board vs the BB (larger hand range). If he does have the guts to raise, you must fold. If you can not fold and will b/c, then c/c'ing is better.

I'm not sure how good we are here. If he does only raise top 5%, then we are slighter worse than a 3:2 dog on the turn. If he fires the river though, I think that many of his none paired hands go away..

[remz289]

*grunch*
I don't like the 3 bet at all. I don't call down that hand, you are a big underdog most of the time. I put him on JJ-AA

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
I don't like the 3 bet at all. I don't call down that hand, you are a big underdog most of the time. I put him on JJ-AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm I specifically put him on TT! Anyone wanna wager?

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
how often does this guy really raise this with AK?

i really, really, really hate the "donk into the pfr" play. i hate it less if hero planned to 3bet the flop, but it's still pretty dumb, especially given the read.

as played, probably fold the turn. do you need to pay 2 more BBs to see that he has JJ+?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I could figure a reason for the donk but couldn't figure out a hand that would fit the reason. I suppose if I could put him on UI overs 100% of the time and wanted to get rid of other overs but you can't be that sure.