Semibluffing on turn with 8 outs or less?

[Malifous]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (2.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 2.70 BB

Results were nice but afterwise i felt i played this hand like sack of [censored]. Would you need flushdraw + straightdraw to make this move +ev in the long run mathematically?

[Malifous]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (11.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

Another sack of [censored] play with straightdraw and marginal call on the river with top pair bad kicker.

[marchron]

Hand 1: bad play, good result.

Hand 2: Donk the flop. You're in perfect relative position to the preflop raiser and thus can get much of the field to pay your bet then his raise. I can fold the river; something tells me you and CO have the same hand.

[Smurph64]

Nope.
You would however on an action board.

Semibluffing with lots of scare cards to come on an orphan pot is usually profitable.

[Landonfan]

1) Check and take your (hopefully) free card. You'll rarely fold out three people.

2) Donk this flop to get bets from people between you and the pf raiser. River is a fold.

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: Donk the flop. You're in perfect relative position to the preflop raiser and thus can get much of the field to pay your bet then his raise.

[/ QUOTE ]


Can we really do this with a FD on the board?

[Smurph64]

I guess I need to consider my orphan pot stance here. Draws can't call here in hand 1.

No one has a king at least 85% of the time. Many bottom pairs fold UI on turn donks when an overcard comes.

So I have to worry about a Q or two pair hitting and raising. If they all call, I still have 6 outs to the nuts where I am going to get the semi-bluff back.

I have two outs where I can lose more money than if I check.

So the question is do you call a bet from the CO here if you check it, because if I were the CO I would bet it with anything? If the answer is yes well consider the semi-bluff instead.

If the answer is no then check.

Lot of this is read sensitive. If you play poker without reads don't semi bluff.