Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6

[True]

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I think there is a lot of merit to just calling the flop raise and checking the turn. If turn goes ch/ch, villain almost certainly has nothing and you can lead the river if you don't hit.

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to be honest, that lnie costs the same ( i know we get to see if we improve ) and it will get les hands to fold and the opportunity to improve to a calling hand.

[Knet]

I did this yesterday on a 65J board (called from blind bet/3bet) and the guy folded 99. You will have a lot of FE on this flop, its good to mix up your play, yadda yadda yadda.

I just don't see you having much FE after he calls your 3-bet. If a club comes on the turn you just overbet shove?

[Knet]

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I think there is a lot of merit to just calling the flop raise and checking the turn. If turn goes ch/ch, villain almost certainly has nothing and you can lead the river if you don't hit.

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People take that line with 88-TT all the time or Jx and will snap call a river bet.

[jalexand42]

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Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $21</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($45, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $35</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $111</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $255</font>


Is this good?

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Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $21</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($45, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $35</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $111</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $255</font>

How about this? Other stuff besides a set can take Jim's line here because of stacks. In fact, I love this line with an overpair sometimes in this situation.

[True]

so you are turning your overpair into a bluff?

[LearnedfromTV]

I like this move because of the stack sizes. Your plan puts him in a real [censored] spot with any medium strength hand - you risk $255 to win $190 while threatening to make him put in $800 more. It also forces him into a wacky risk/reward spot with his bluffs if he wants to rerebluff.

He has a bluff some, one pair some, and a set some, and you have a bluff some, strong one pair/two pair some, and a set some, where 'some' is non-negigible in all cases, but where it's probably impossible to assign correct weights.

What matters is that when you reraise the flop, he doesn't need to be bluffing all that often (esp. given that you also fold out some made hands) for you to show a profit. But if you shove the turn, you have to be bluffing with a fairly high frequency to make him correct to payoff your sets, even if you don't always take this line with a set. So if he's sitting there with AJ or QQ, he's getting really bad reverse implied odds, given that you're not following up the majority of your bluffs.

Another way of saying this is that raise the flop here is a bluff that people make a lot and doesn't threaten stack commitment, whereas reraising the flop is a bluff people don't make a lot and does threaten stack committment.

I realize that all this will make someone come back and say "so this is bad with a set," but I disagree because with a set you care most about getting lots of money in the for the few times he can/decides to stack off, whereas with a bluff you want to threaten putting lots of money in for all the times he can't/decides not to. This bet is a bit like a preflop threebet w/ 100bb in that given the stack sizes, it's really hard to counter with any hand (in both cases this assumes you don't bluff with it too often against good opponents, but even if you do, it's still hard to counter, except (in large part) by adjusting the range that gets him into the spot - i.e. preflop raise range/flop raise range).

That is, given the awkwardness of being threebet, he should be careful about his raising range on this flop, but of all the ranges in the hand, that's probably the one least likely to be carefully thought out (i.e. "he donked? I raise!").

All that said, I think this is a little better if you raise to $290ish; whatever would leave slightly more than a pot size bet.

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It's hilarious to see everyone running circles around each other: "people never do this with a set", "of course people do this with a set", "this is always getting looked up (Yeti Theorem!)", "He's raise/folding a ton."

Sometimes I think no one (myself included) knows anything about what people's frequencies really are.

[jalexand42]

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so you are turning your overpair into a bluff?

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Okay, so you posted this earlier:


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yeh, unless I have seen villain take this line with a set before I often wouldn't give them very much credit here and come over the top as a bluff or call with a wide range as I stated earlier.

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So tell me, am I turning my hand into a bluff with this line or am I trying to accomplish something else?

[True]

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so you are turning your overpair into a bluff?

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Okay, so you posted this earlier:


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yeh, unless I have seen villain take this line with a set before I often wouldn't give them very much credit here and come over the top as a bluff or call with a wide range as I stated earlier.

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So tell me, am I turning my hand into a bluff with this line or am I trying to accomplish something else?

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But my logic is flawed.......

The only problem with this is that A) you are now agreeing that I would be correct for this to be a good flop line, and B) you are not thinking about later streets....

[FiSheYe]

I like the way you played it. Even tho I like raising 280+ more. I am just undecided which turn line I like the most. Obviously c/f if you don't hit anything is fine unless you see great FE on the turn. How do we continue if
1) a spade hits:
a) Ace of spades -&gt; I think c/r might be a good play here, we'll have 12outs and get him to fold a lot hands
b) low spade -&gt; Hmm I think betting might be problematic if he raises us.. but checking with the intention to call gives us insufficent odds, even tho we might get a free cards.. All together I lean towards checking in hope of a freecard or small bet.
c) spade that gives us an doublebelly and fd.. hmm Might I think c/r might be good here if the spade is higher than J while c/calling seems more reasonable if its lower.

2. We hit a pair or double belly:
I think pair is pretty much useless so it's like we do not improve at all (c/f), while the double belly gives us outs but I am not sure if betting is good here..

Thoughts ?

[DJ Sensei]

jim i like this occasionally, if your image is clean