Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[iggymcfly]

I think you're underestimating the fluidity of the polls. Last week, West Virginia was 30 points ahead of Missouri in the Harris poll and 44 points ahead in the Coaches' poll. West Virginia had their best win of the season, beating Cincinnatti on the road (#14 Sagarin) while Missouri beat a pretty pedestrian KSU team (#45 Sagarin). Yet this week Missouri's dead even in the Harris poll and only 17 points back in the Coaches' poll.

While part of this was due to the teams that lost, (with some voters already having WVU ahead of OU and UO and less having Missouri there), I think a lot of it is just due to the buzz that Missouri picked up with everyone talking about their showdown with Kansas this week. If ASU beats USC badly enough to get Herbstreit, Fowler et al backing them, a ton of voters would move them up past West Virginia. They're already dead-even in the computer rankings so it wouldn't take all that much in the polls for them to move up.

Also, I think the computers would give ASU a bigger boost than you're counting on. What the Sun Devils have going for them is that they have a very forgivable loss (at Oregon, #9 in the computers). However, they don't have much of a big win anywhere on the schedule. Thus, just getting one big win over USC will be a big boost for them. Meanwhile, West Virginia already has a bigger win (at Cincy) then they can get this week (home vs. UConn). Therefore, this win won't have as big of an impact for them. They still have to deal with their loss to #19 USF though. Admittedly, an Oregon loss would hurt ASU, but if ASU, WVU, and Oregon all win out, I think the Sun Devils would be ahead of the Mountaineers in at least 4/6 of the computers and possibly 5/6.

[SunOfBeach]

Post Oak,

I'm curious what you think of Georgia trading at 3 on wsex? They're the only team over 0/2 odds that you didn't analyze in here.

Even with a miniscule chance of making the BCS title game, I think they'd be a slight favorite vs any possible opponent *given* them making the game (ie by beating LSU, probably somewhat handily to make the title game in the first place). If we assume it as roughly 50/50 if they make the game, we'd need them to have a >6% chance of making the title game. Whatcha think?

[iggymcfly]

Well they need West Virginia to lose, the Big XII North winner to lose, Arizona State to lose, Tennessee to lose, and then they need to go undefeated. I think you can put that pretty safely under 6%. Probably somewhere between 0.5% and 1% is more accurate.

[cato-tonia]

there is something lost in all this talk about WVU: and it's not just that they are highly unlikely to beat any of the other teams mentioned in a serious discussion of the BCS championship.

as a bettor, i want the matchup that will create the largest dissonance between bettor perception and actual team strength. will WVU produce that? will ASU produce that? neither of those teams are strong contenders for the win, imo, but they might produce lines that will make the game unbettable. the real misfortune of the OSU loss is to my pocketbook.

-c

[DannyOcean_]

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Well they need West Virginia to lose, the Big XII North winner to lose, Arizona State to lose, Tennessee to lose, and then they need to go undefeated. I think you can put that pretty safely under 6%. Probably somewhere between 0.5% and 1% is more accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes me a sad Danny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] We still have a shot...

[SunOfBeach]

Meh... you're no phun. I was enjoying the idea of betting 300 bucks on this craziness and sweating out a 10k payday... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].

You're right, of course. They're still -EV at 3.

The funny thing is that in the bottom of my heart, if I was forced to pick one team on a neutral field right now (Nov 20th, 12noon), I think I'd take Georgia right after LSU, and the decision would be close.

I guess I'll stick with Georgia-3.5 against your Yellow Jackets as my only way to bet the "Georgia is good" angle.

[iggymcfly]

I'd take Florida over Georgia on a neutral field with a healthy Tim Tebow. Not sure who (if anyone) I'd take over Florida though.

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd take Florida over Georgia on a neutral field with a healthy Tim Tebow. Not sure who (if anyone) I'd take over Florida though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Florida's defense is awful, but yeah that game is a lot closer if tebow was healthy. But saying they are they are the best in the country (as you seem to imply seems dumb to me. The defense is just bad, and Tebow can't fix that. I think there are several teams who would be favored over them on a nuetral field.

[iggymcfly]

The Sagarin predictor has Florida #7. I think the fact that they're a young team that's improved significantly throughout the year and is now pretty much completely healthy makes them more likely to be undervalued by Sagarin than overvalued. Both Oregon and Oklahoma have injured QBs, so you can take them off the list of teams that could beat the Gators right away. That leaves 4 teams ranked ahead of them:

Kansas- Completely untested pass defense that looked bad against Nebraska. I don't trust them against any of the top QBs. They might be able to beat a running team like West Virginia, but I think they'd have to be a dog to Florida.

Ohio State- Have looked great behind their rock-solid defense all year long, except for when they got torched by a running QB in Juice Williams. They also gave up 102 yards to Jake Locker on 14 carries. I think Tebow would have a field day. I'd definitely take Florida here.

LSU- Florida came within one play of beating them in Baton Rouge. Give the young Gators some time to jell, move it to a neutral site, and I think I like Florida in a rematch. Not by much at all, they maybe only win 52% of the time, but if you forced me to pick a side, Florida would be it.

West Virginia- West Virginia's a touch better than Florida on paper, but they've had huge fumbling problems whenever they've been in a big game to the point that it's hard to write it off as variance. Also, the offense which has carried the team throughout the season was completely shut down by the speed of USF. If I had to take one team between these two with my life on the line, it would be the Gators.

Actually, the team that would have the best chance to beat Florida might be USC. They contained a mobile QB in Dixon pretty well in the loss and are finally getting healthy on offense. If you figure that they're 6.5 better than ASU on a neutral and the predictor doesn't overrate Arizona State (which I don't see why it would), they become the #2 team in the country. This game truly looks like a PK if I were setting the line. I have no idea who would win this game.

Does any of that seem off? The only teams who I think would even be favored in the actual betting line if they were to play would be LSU and West Virginia, maybe LSU by 1.5 and WVU by 1.

[Thremp]

PO,

I'll gloat for you.

Very nice.