When to middle?

[iillllii]

A couple times recently I've had a chance to take a middle position, but am not sure when it is profitable. At lines of -110 on both sides of a bet, is capturing one number worth paying the vig on any other outcome? How many, or which, numbers do you need to capture to make it profitable?

Examples:

-A few weeks ago, I had $110 on Texas A&M -6 vs. Oklahoma St to win $100, and by the time the game kicked off, the line was Texas A&M -7.5. By taking Oklahoma state +7.5 at $110, I win $200 if A&M wins by 7, I win $100 if A&M wins by 6, and I lose $10 on any other outcome. Since I have a key number here (7), and 6 is good too, I suspect I should jump on OSU +7.5 every time here?

If that is an obvious place to take the shot, where is the threshold? If the line had merely moved to OSU +7, I win $100 if A&M wins by 6 or 7, is this worth the $10 hit on any other outcome?

-This past weekend, I had $110 on Toledo (pick) vs. Ohio, and by kickoff, Toledo was a 1.5 favorite. I could take Ohio +1.5 to win $200 if Toledo wins by 1 point, but I'd lose the $10 vig on any other outcome. Doesn't seem worth it here....

-This upcoming weekend, I have Oregon -2.5. If the line moves to 3.5, do I jump on USC and hope for that 3 point Oregon win?

[hedgie43]

Unless you now think that the second bet would be +EV on its own, you should just be happy that the line has moved in your favor.

[Thremp]

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Unless you now think that the second bet would be +EV on its own, you should just be happy that the line has moved in your favor.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're flat betting, yes. If you're betting with kelly criterion, you should be hedging. Though I don't exactly have all the kinks worked out, nor do I know exactly how to do this and how it'd fit with my current method of wagering. So don't feel terrible if you can't, but eventually... yes.. you should be hedging.

[hedgie43]

Thremp,

Got a question for you regarding Kelly and simultaneous correlated wagers. Say there is value on both the run line and the moneyline for a baseball game and Kelly tells me I should be betting roughly the same amount on each. Should I bet slightly more than half-Kelly on both or is there a more exact way to come up with the solution for this?

[Thremp]

Sometimes there are better people than myself to answer:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...tml#post279578

[rjp]

I'm bad about not looking for middles, but depending on your risk profile it can be an optimal strategy.

[brendanb438]

Just remember the 3 and 7 have more value in the NFL than in College ball. Really like everyone else said if you are flatbetting college ball than be happy with the line moving in your favor and let it ride.