Preseason games to consider

[iillllii]

I'm no pro handicapper, just thought I'd share my rationale for a couple of possible plays.

Per Phil Steele, one of the most significant single factors in handicapping preseason football is if a coach blitzes his defense or not - usually they won't, but if you can find someone who will, they have to become a favorite regardless of all other factors.

That said, I've noticed that the Patriots and the Cowboys have both come under media fire for blitzing in their most recent preseason games.

The Cowboys have won their first two games by margins of 13 and 11, over the Colts and Broncos, respectively, and are currently -3 at the Texans Saturday. Seems like a good bet, especially with the Cowboys playing Romo a lot (29 attempts through the 2 games), and their overall QB depth with Brad Johnson and 3rd stringer Matt Moore (Oregon State) a capable passer. By contrast, Matt Schaub has only had 17 attempts so far, with Sage Rosenfels getting the majority of the work (39 attempts) for the Texans.

In the interest of full disclosure, the Texans so far are 2-0 ATS I believe, having lost by 1 vs. the Bears and most recently won by 13 @ AZ. It is possible Kubiak, in his first year as coach, has something to prove or wants to instill a 'winning attitude' into the perennial losers. Then again, if that is the case, he hasn't been doing it by playing his starters deep into games or by blitzing a lot.


The Patriots have lost by 3 in both of their two games this preseason, @ the Buccaneers and vs. the Titans. They are -1.5 at the Panthers on Friday. This game I like less because the Panthers have good QB depth with David Carr likely to see a fair amount of playing time after Delhomme, but might be worth looking into.

[rjp]

This is Kubiak's 2nd year. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I got a bad number with Carolina, although I expect the line to move back to where they're a small favorite.

Starters will play 3 quarters for most teams, and the blitz doesn't hurt teams as much in week 3, although it's still a plus.

Good luck!