15/30 live. qucik flop question

[JasonP530]

game is very loose. players will call any 8 out or more draw and wont release non nut draws for any amount of bets.

6 handed. 2 limps. SB completes and I check with AAQJss.

Flop is JT3 rainbow with one club. SB leads. His range is a set, pair+open ender, open ender, top two, and top pair. If I raise, noone will fold anything they would ordinarily call with. Call, fold or raise? What if you take top pair out of his betting range?

-Jason

[TMTTR]

I will typically raise here against just about any player. I don't mind this getting heads up. If there is a reraise from any player, I am pretty confident there is at least one set out there and play accordingly.

When you say that no one will fold that would typically call, does that include players with runner-runner low draws?

[JasonP530]

dry runner runner low(no pair) will fold for 2, but probably not for one. No chance of getting something like KT9 to ever lay down for 2 bets.

[Buzz]

Jason – If you’re reading SB’s range correctly, then I think your best option is to raise, hoping to isolate SB. Your hand is favored over all the possibilities within SB’s range except a set or top two.

If you are correct in including top pair as a hand SB would bet, then you’re about five to one to have the better hand. If SB’s range to bet here would not include top pair, then you’re about a three to one favorite to have the better hand after this flop.

Those estimates are crude and approximate, but I think are in the ball park.

Your hand is a pushing hand after this flop. If you are correct as to SB’s range, you should be grateful SB has bet, providing you with the opportunity to either possibly knock out marginal straight draws or overcharge those draws by giving them clearly unfavorable odds to continue.

What if the raise does not knock out marginal straight draws? What if some putz holding 2489-rainbow will call two bets after this flop? In that case you are still the favorite, and at least when you win you will collect from two instead of only one.

However, you’re behind if an opponent has flopped a set or top two pairs (or probably any flopped two pairs). But that is at least less likely than nobody making a set on this flop. Middle set or bottom set are hard to play to a double bet, since from the perspective of an opponent holding middle or bottom set, either you or SB could have top set.

By all means, raise.

Buzz

[SweetLuckyMe]

If you're 100% positive that nobody who would call will fold if you raise, then I just call. It's rare to be that sure, however. A fold may be better than a raise or a call - but I can't see that a raise isn't better than a call in this type spot, IMO.

[JasonP530]

I am trying to get a handle on the game. Since everyone calls everything, the typical "raise to eliminate people" doesn't work, so I feel as if I need to refine my strategy a bit. I feel like overpairs to the board are not great, since you can't eliminate people, and if 4 people see the turn, there are really no safe cards for you(except making your set). You need to have nut draws, since everyone is calling everything, runner runner straight, runner runner flush, runner runner low, and two pair are common and are not folded. Plus, since noone will fold a pair+jack high flush draw, you get good value from them(though, they will just call if they hit, never raise).

I guess the point is that on a JT3 flop, if SB bets J3 and won't fold, and any player will call 2 cold with T89 or KT9, then with AAQJ you really just have an overpair and a gutshot, so it doesn't seem like it is worth it to raise. Thoughts?

-Jason

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Since everyone calls everything, the typical "raise to eliminate people" doesn't work,...

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Jason - I don't doubt your veracity, but at the same time it’s hard for me to believe "everyone calls everything." I think it more likely seems that way because you get frustrated when, over and over, opponents call when you want them to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
...the typical "raise to eliminate people" doesn't work,...

[/ QUOTE ]Then you raise to make them pay through the nose for their foolish draws. [ QUOTE ]
so I feel as if I need to refine my strategy a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]Sounds reasonable to refine your strategy. [ QUOTE ]
I feel like overpairs to the board are not great,...

[/ QUOTE ]I agree.[ QUOTE ]
...since you can't eliminate people,....

[/ QUOTE ]However, I don't think of that as the reason overpairs are not great. Instead I think overpairs are not great because they don't fit very well with the board. The key in Omaha-8 is finding a good fit with the board. To me, a good fit means (1) you can see at least two board cards you can use to make what you think will be a winning hand, and (2) you have favorable odds to draw for the third card. An overpair with an unpaired board simply doesn't qualify because there are not two board cards that can fit with it. [ QUOTE ]
... and if 4 people see the turn, there are really no safe cards for you(except making your set).

[/ QUOTE ]A card making a set does not generally seem a safe card to me either.

[ QUOTE ]
You need to have nut draws, since everyone is calling everything,....

[/ QUOTE ]It doesn't logically follow that you need nut draws since everyone is calling everything.

<ul type="square">For example, when the flop is JT7, the turn is K and the river is 7, making the board JT7K7, then Hero holding TT99-rainbow has a probable winner, although from Hero's perspective quad sevens are the nuts and there are two possible higher full houses. If everyone is truly calling everything, Hero should collect big with TT99 here.

In this case, 98 is the nuts on the flop, then AQ is the nuts on the turn, and 77 is the nuts on the river. Hero, with TT99 never had the nuts or a nut draw. (But he did have flopped middle set).[/list]
[ QUOTE ]
...runner runner straight, runner runner flush, runner runner low, and two pair are common and are not folded.

[/ QUOTE ]Wow.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the point is that on a JT3 flop, if SB bets J3 and won't fold, and any player will call 2 cold with T89 or KT9, then with AAQJ you really just have an overpair and a gutshot, so it doesn't seem like it is worth it to raise. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]If SB holds J3, then I don't think you should continue after this flop, let alone raise. You originally wrote:[ QUOTE ]

His range is a set, pair+open ender, open ender, top two, and top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]That is a far cry from two pairs, jacks and treys (although jacks and treys, having top pair, would be included in the original range you stated).

Your original hand is the favorite against four random hands. As simulated, your original hand wins 32.4% while each of four opponents with random cards wins 16.9%.

However, one overpair is an under-dog to two pairs after an unpaired flop. If the board doesn't pair, then a flush or straight will generally be the nuts and if nobody makes a flush or straight and you don't make a set, your hand cannot beat the hand with two pairs. If the board does pair, your opponent with two pairs may make a full house.

Buzz

[goofball]

If raising really scares out no one then go ahead and just call. No need to bloat this pot with a marginal hand oop until we at least see another card.

[JasonP530]

Thanks Buzz.

Its a game that doesn't fit with the strategy I have been taught, so I am trying to adjust.

I think Hands like AA4 go down in value because ordinarily I would raise to try to get it heads up or 3 way where my aces + a4 would have good shot at scooping or winning half. In a loose game, it is unlikely aces will win the high half, a4 is by no means a lock when people are calling raises with A3/23. Suited aces go up in value since when you make the nut flush, there will typically be callers with nonnut flushes that both give you odds and pay you off. High hands go up in value since king high flushes can be ok, and becuase you will be getting good odds to make a high hand, given the preflop limpers and postflop play. Middling hands like 2367 go down as well I think, because you are less likely to scoop because someone is in there with 89/58 along with making sets of 7's and 6's.

Thats all I could come up with for the second with respect to changing hand values.

-Jason

P.S. Any thoughts on how to handle a straddle/restraddle? Often times the game tightens up when that happens(1 or 2 people and the straddle/restraddle. They will never fold and often cap it.

[Buzz]

Jason - Two pairs is the best AA49-rainbow can do roughly 38.7%. It doesn't matter how many opponents there are. And AA49-rainbow makes a full house or quads about 10.6%, again regardless of the number of opponents.

The difference is in how often each of these types of high hands wins. Two pairs wins for AA49-rainbow against one tenacious opponent about 64%. Two pairs wins for AA49-rainbow against four tenacious opponents about 15%.

On the other hand, aces full/quads wins against one tenacious opponent 96% but against four tenacious opponents 88%.

So against many tenacious opponents you play AA49-rainbow as a drawing hand figuring you need to make a full house or quads with your aces (or a wheel) to do any good. You don't count on making two pairs to win. Two pairs might win, and sometimes on the river you'll pay off with two pairs, because of the size of the pot, but you don't play the hand as a pushing hand, because pushing doesn't work.

All the same, that doesn't mean you don't raise with the hand. AA49-rainbow is a better than average hand. If your opponents are going to chase with crap, then go ahead and raise. But now you're raising for value.

You can raise or not with the hand before the flop, but if you do raise with it, your reasons for raising are different in a loose game than in a tight game.

AA49-rainbow doesn't go down in value in a game with overly loose opponents. On the contrary, AA49-rainbow goes up in value against these opponents. It's just that you don't win with two pairs as often as against tight opponents. But when you make your full houses, or quads, or wheels, then you clean up. The net effect is that the looser the opponents, the better the hand fares.

I ran a total of over fifty simulations for AA49-rainbow, using different numbers of opponents with different playing characteristics. The looser your opponents, the better the hand fares. The tighter and more aggressively you play the hand, the better the hand fares.

Against random hands), AA49-rainbow is a money making hand in all situations. With a suited ace, it would obviously be even better.

[ QUOTE ]
I think Hands like AA4 go down in value because ordinarily I would raise to try to get it heads up or 3 way where my aces + a4 would have good shot at scooping or winning half.

[/ QUOTE ]In the game you're describing, hands like AA49-rainbow or better don't go down in value. To the contrary, they go up in value. However, you have to improve your high to a full house or quads to do well. (Wheels do all right too). But trip aces or worse are weak when the board shows straight or flush (as it usually does when not paired).

At any rate, if your opponents are truly oblivious to your raises, then I think you should raise with AA49-rainbow or better for value. However, let me hasten to add that I don't buy it that typical 10/20 players are truly oblivious to your raises. I think you are being deceived or are simply mistaken. But if they really are oblivious, you should be sitting on a gold mine. Blast away.

[ QUOTE ]
In a loose game, it is unlikely aces will win the high half, a4 is by no means a lock when people are calling raises with A3/23.

[/ QUOTE ]Seems absolutely true to me. In my own games, opponents will call pre-flop raises with A3XY and 23XY. Raising with A4XY to knock our A3XY or 23XY is so ineffective as to be purely stupid, but there still may be a sensible reason to raise with A4XY. (What is sensible depends on your opponents).

[ QUOTE ]
In a loose game, it is unlikely aces will win the high half, a4 is by no means a lock when people are calling raises with A3/23.

[/ QUOTE ]If the flop has a trey, then A3XY or 23XY hands are dead. So if you're going to play A4XY hands, you play the ace-four combo primarily as a second nut low draw, needing to find a deuce or a trey on the flop, and also needing to read your opponents for non-nut-low hands or draws to continue, unless you have something else with which to work. (There are other two-card combos within the hand besides the ace-four; the ace goes with the other two cards in the hand too).

[ QUOTE ]
Middling hands like 2367 go down as well I think, because you are less likely to scoop because someone is in there with 89/58 along with making sets of 7's and 6's.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think of 2367-rainbow as a very good hand. Double suited is better but not by much. I'll play 2367 hands under certain conditions, mainly to increase the volume of hands I play, but 2367, even double suited is a poor starting hand. Seems to me that it goes up in value as the game becomes looser.

I think almost all hands go up in value when the game becomes looser. I probably don't play a particular hand in the same way when the game is loose as when the game is tight, but loose and tight is not all there is to it.

If the game is truly as loose as you describe it, then you should be kicking butt, big time. If you're not, then your opponents may be deceiving you - maybe it's not really quite as loose as it seems.

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. Any thoughts on how to handle a straddle/restraddle? Often times the game tightens up when that happens(1 or 2 people and the straddle/restraddle. They will never fold and often cap it.

[/ QUOTE ]I think you're forced to gamble. Either that or get out of the game.

Buzz