Do I have to push here?

[kurto]

Player is SLAG but I'm new to table....

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $36.60
CO: $24.65
BTN: $27.10
Hero (SB): $24
BB: $13.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, CO folds, BTN calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $1.25, BTN folds

Flop: ($3.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $9.50</font>, <font color="red">

[ybother]

limp call makes sutied connectors and low pairs like 5s, 6s a big part of the range, its true you have outs but given the raise on a monotone board I dont think the overpair is ahead here much, with you being new to the table and no reads, a bet fold is okay

[Pussy Galore]

standard push..why wouldn't u

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
standard push..why wouldn't u

[/ QUOTE ]

that really depends on a what the realistic hand range for my opponent is, doesn't it? I have to heavily weight him for draws here for me to be ahead, no?

[Genesis]

Some quick, hopefully semi-accurate math..
You need to win &gt; 42% of the time to profit.

You have 31.7% equity vs made flushes.
You have 34.6% equity vs sets.
You have 85.6% equity vs flush draw + pair hands like KQ.

55, 66 - total 6 combos
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Qx - 3 combos
Suited connectors, don't know which ones he limp with, but worth only 1 combo each, let's say 6 of them.

So, sets 40%, connectors 40%, KQ 20%.
.4*.317 + .4*.346 + .2*.856* = 43.6% equity

He may not call with KQ every time, so that hurts our equity. Add in the chance he has some unaccounted for worse hands. These two probably balance each other. I think a push is break even or marginal +EV. Push and gamble.

[Pussy Galore]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
standard push..why wouldn't u

[/ QUOTE ]

that really depends on a what the realistic hand range for my opponent is, doesn't it? I have to heavily weight him for draws here for me to be ahead, no?

[/ QUOTE ]





yes thats true..drawe have 2 b part of his range..but when the villian is not known i have a tendency 2 push in this instance..maybe thats a leak on my part but i hate folding a hand like yours agaisnt unknown.

[KEW]

I think a push here is will +EV...

I can not do the math but hopefully my thoughts are clear...No matter what villains range is we are less then a 2 to 1 underdog at the worst..With the dead money in the pot already we are even in a better spot equity wise...Now regardless of what villains holding are it will only take a small amount of FE and/or small % of times when villain is pushing a lesser hand(like KQ,Pair + FD,straight draw, naked Ks and other random crap) for a push to be easily +EV

[mojed]

I wonder if a call would be better, or a reraise that isn't all in, something that ensures that the hands we beat stay in.

Edit: Actually no, ignore that.

[ybother]

its hard to say with no reads if he does this with a pair plus a high spadeor only sets and 2 pair type hands, so the equity could be close to even, so I guess its really question how much variance can you take, if variance doesnt tilt you as much as a the next guy, gamble and shove

[Genesis]

I think we have to push for fear of another spade falling and potentially killing our action vs sets and smaller flushes.

Also, in my post above I basically ran a near worst case scenario. The only hand I include that we are beating is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q, and we still have enough equity to push slightly +EV.