|
|
#131
10-21-2007, 08:20 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This discussion comes up all the time. There are enough people who do -EV teasers to more than make up for those of us who do them in a +EV manner. Books are still making money, etc., etc. [/ QUOTE ] not exactly true...books have been and will likely get more aggressive at shading teaser lines against basic strat teasers [/ QUOTE ] Some will, some won't. No one here does teasers at sia at -120/150, do they? If they want to lose that biz entirely, you're right, they will move it and keep a few people that have 1 acc't and don't know better. I don't see why running hot [TB finish, etc] would lead to an utter change in pricing and strategy. 
|
|
#132
10-21-2007, 08:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
[ QUOTE ]
Some will, some won't. No one here does teasers at sia at -120/150, do they? If they want to lose that biz entirely, you're right, they will move it and keep a few people that have 1 acc't and don't know better. I don't see why running hot [TB finish, etc] would lead to an utter change in pricing and strategy. [/ QUOTE ] I dunno man I can't really see the books getting too upset about losing the "biz" of people who are placing +EV bets against them.
|
|
#133
10-21-2007, 08:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
So why haven't they already done that this year?
Or last year? Or etc? Why can you still find +100 at multiple places? Why are +180 teasers basically everywhere - greek, wsex, vip, bodog, cris, bookm, etc? You act like books have never run into a few weeks of winning teasers before? To go 5-0-1 this week, you needed 2 miracle back-door covers, and Arizona to miss 2 conversions. And many had Was-2.5 so they were an eyeblink away from going 3-3 -- and losing 6-team, 6 5-teams, 15 4 teams, 1-19 on 3 teamers, and 3-12 on 2 teamers. That's +4.8 - 53u on Wongs, or over a 48u loss if no typos above. The assumption that on a highly variable subset of bets that Wongs will continue to outperform wildly is questionable.
|
|
#135
10-21-2007, 09:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
[ QUOTE ]
Naj, No one cares about long term expectation or variance. I mean some people think these will go >75% long term. [/ QUOTE ] Like me. Let me continue to live in my world of delusion, dammit!
|
|
#136
10-21-2007, 09:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
[ QUOTE ]
This discussion comes up all the time. There are enough people who do -EV teasers to more than make up for those of us who do them in a +EV manner. Books are still making money, etc., etc. [/ QUOTE ] I know a ton of people who tease one game ATS and o/u all the time... - C -
|
|
#137
10-21-2007, 10:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
Dali,
I just wanna thank you. I won almost a G today from $10 teasers. I RR'd everyone except Wash. 3 and 4 game teasers as well. I love you.
|
|
#138
10-21-2007, 10:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
Week 7 results:
Teased games: 8-0-1 (94.44%? Does tie count as half loss in standings?) 2 team teases: 31-0-5 (93.06% Should tie pushes be factored in similar fashion?) +22320 YTD: Teased games: 23-2-1(90.38%) 2 team teases: 47-6-5 (85.34%) +28550 Looking for input on the accounting percentages. I'm all ears.
|
|
#139
10-21-2007, 10:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
[ QUOTE ]
Dali, I just wanna thank you. I won almost a G today from $10 teasers. I RR'd everyone except Wash. 3 and 4 game teasers as well. I love you. [/ QUOTE ] Congrats, man, that sounds like it's probably a huge BR influx for you.
|
|
#140
10-21-2007, 10:25 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 7
Well I have just been playin around with small units from my poker roll, but it is pretty huge to win that many of what I was considering units! Thanks again!
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
