***** November LC Thread ***** - Page 6

daveT · #1 11-06-2007, 10:54 PM

Feel like I can FT this thing. I am in the top ten with less than 40 players left.

Wohooo!!!

daveT · #2 11-06-2007, 10:58 PM

I am having a problem though. These guys keep on small betting-bluffing me. I just let them bluff to snap them, but hey, the river saves them 2 times already.

Whatever, at least I am in the money.

daveT · #3 11-06-2007, 11:27 PM

Here is some math degen stuff for your entertainment.

Jered Akenman must be pretty smart, although probability is supposed to be very easy.

Suppose you have played 22,500 hands of 9-handed limit holdem, and you've won 337.5 bets, with a std deviation of
17 bets/100. So your win rate w is 1.5 bb/100, and your standard deviation s is 17.

Traditional risk of ruin says, for a 300 bet bankroll:

ror = exp(-2*w*b/s^2) = exp(-2*1.5*300/289) = 4.44%

This is the risk of ruin if your TRUE win rate is 1.5 bb/100 and your TRUE standard deviation is 17 bb/100.

But you don't really know your true win rate, and you don't have enough of a sample to conclude that it's really super close to those numbers. Instead, we can approximate your win rate by another normal distribution. Suppose your win rate is a random variable with mean w and standard deviation that we can calculate:

s_w = 17/(sqrt(225)) = 1.1333

If we assume your win rate is distributed normally (it isn't, but it's a better approximation than assuming your win rate is exact), then we can do better by calculating your RoR for all the points in that distribution and summing them by their weights. To do this we use calculus, as in our book, and arrive at the RoRU formula:

roru = r(w,b)*(exp(2b^2(s_w^2/s^4)))(phi(w - 2b(s_w^2/s^2)) + phi(-w/s_w)

which if I've done the math right, comes out to 17.89%.

This reflects the uncertainty about our win rate -- the base RoR is our risk of ruin if we are 100% accurate on our win rate and standard deviation. But here we might have just overperformed our expectation - we're only about 1.5 standard deviations away from zero. And at w=zero, risk of ruin is 100%, while at w = 3.0 (the other side), risk of ruin only goes down by, say, 3%.

---------

What does that phi symbol mean?

------------------------

phi is the cumulative normal distribution function. Suppose you have a normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation s. For any value, you can make a "z-score," which is essentially the number of standard deviations away from the mean that you are.

z(x) = (x - mu)/s

So if your distribution has a mean of 10 and a standard deviation of 5, then 2.5 has a z-score of -1.5.

Phi(z) is the probability that if you randomly select a point from your distribution, it will lie to the left of the z-score z.

So take the familiar example that 68% of points lie between +1 and -1 standard deviations. This implies that phi(-1) is 16%, phi(0) is 50%, and phi(1) is 84%.

I got 17.89% by using the following variables:

w = 1.5
s = 17
n = 225
s_w = 1.13333
b = 300

ror(w,b) = exp(-2*1.5*300/17^2) = .0444
(that's term 1 in the roru formula)

exp(2*(300^2)*(1.13333^2/1.5^4)) = 15.929
(thats the second term)

phi(1.5 - 2*300*(1.13333^2/1.5^2)) = .121673
(that's the third term)

phi(-1.5/1.13333)
(that's the fourth term)

Multiplying terms 1,2, and 3 together and adding term 4 gives 17.89%.

---------------------------

OH CRIMENY!!!!
HEAD IS EXPLODED!!!!

HokieGreg · #4 11-07-2007, 12:14 AM

[X] davet does his best jay_shark/tnixon impression
[ ] someone will read that entire post
[X] bastard

Indiana · #5 11-07-2007, 01:57 AM

ZOMG IM THE GREATEST HU RAZZ PLAYER IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PureDiesel · #6 11-07-2007, 02:06 AM

INSANE!!!!! ongame IS rigged!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
just started another session and WHAM! WHAM WHAM! 
PRE-FLOP
bowwowpow bets $0.60, Megan8988 calls $0.50.

FLOP [board cards: KS,7C,9H ]
Megan8988 bets $1.50, bowwowpow calls $1.50.

TURN [board cards: KS,7C,9H,2D ]
Megan8988 bets $4, bowwowpow calls $4.

RIVER [board cards: KS,7C,9H,2D,QC ]
Megan8988 bets $10, bowwowpow bets $20.65 and is all-in, Megan8988 calls $10.65.

SHOWDOWN
bowwowpow shows [ QD,QS ]
Megan8988 shows [ TC,JC ]
Megan8988 wins $52.80.

PRE-FLOP
terskaxx calls $0.10, bowwowpow bets $0.75, terskaxx calls $0.75.

FLOP [board cards 2C,3H,QC ]
bowwowpow bets $2, terskaxx calls $2.

TURN [board cards 2C,3H,QC,9H ]
bowwowpow bets $6, terskaxx bets $15, bowwowpow bets $17 and is all-in, terskaxx calls $8.

RIVER [board cards 2C,3H,QC,9H,8H ]

SHOWDOWN
bowwowpow shows [ 10C,QD ]
terskaxx shows [ 9C,9S ]
terskaxx wins $51
SUMMARY
Dealer: terskaxx
Pot: $52, (including rake: $1)
bowwowpow loses $26
terskaxx bets $26, collects $51, net $25

 DIE ONGAME!!!! BURN IN ****!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I haven't seen so much BS in years...............

All I think right now is support set me up, because i told them yesterday that I'll post it all on 2+2 and they r going to burn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Any1 knows a good hackers to destroy ongame?
I'll sell my house, but I'll do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 DISCLAIMER: I wouldn't care about these 13 buy-ins lost, but the reason I am steaming is because i could've lost 200 buy-ins in these short period of time. Every single hand was a badbeat, every single hand was rivered, every single hand postflop lost beeing mim-to-huge favorite. Poker is the game with high possible variance, but NOT with TOTAL CRAP LIKE THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 But you know what? I WILL NOT STOP PLAYING THERE, I WILL BURN THAT MO FO DOWN! THEY'LL RETURN EVERYTHING in 1000 times more back to me!!!!!!!! I haven't tilted and I will NOT tilt because of some f ckng rigged ONGAME BS CRAP !!!!
I WILL TAKE IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ChicagoRy · #7 11-07-2007, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
DIE ONGAME!!!! BURN IN ****!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I haven't seen so much BS in years...............

All I think right now is support set me up , because i told them yesterday that I'll post it all on 2+2 and they r going to burn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Any1 knows a good hackers to destroy ongame?
I'll sell my house, but I'll do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 DISCLAIMER: I wouldn't care about these 13 buy-ins lost, but the reason I am steaming is because i could've lost 200 buy-ins in these short period of time. Every single hand was a badbeat, every single hand was rivered, every single hand postflop lost beeing mim-to-huge favorite. Poker is the game with high possible variance, but NOT with TOTAL CRAP LIKE THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

But you know what? I WILL NOT STOP PLAYING THERE, I WILL BURN THAT MO FO DOWN! THEY'LL RETURN EVERYTHING in 1000 times more back to me!!!!!!!! I haven't tilted and I will NOT tilt because of some f ckng rigged ONGAME BS CRAP !!!!
I WILL TAKE IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Indiana · #8 11-07-2007, 02:18 AM

"But you know what? I WILL NOT STOP PLAYING THERE, I WILL BURN THAT MO FO DOWN! THEY'LL RETURN EVERYTHING in 1000 times more back to me!!!!!!!! I haven't tilted and I will NOT tilt because of some f ckng rigged ONGAME BS CRAP !!!!
I WILL TAKE IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

HAHAHAHAHA OMG THAT IS SO GD FUNNY

Somekid · #9 11-07-2007, 02:15 PM

Is this too loose? I had been pushing a fair amount before this, and at one point my opponent called my AI with Q4s (and won [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]). In the hand below, his stack was 1255 after posting.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (2 handed)

BB (t1405)
Hero (t1595)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t1595

jakeduke · #10 11-07-2007, 02:45 PM

Normally I'd think pushing just about atc would be good at this blind level, but if villain is calling shoves with q4s maybe not?