TPMK spot OOP in tilt 150

[Bond18]

I've been pretty aggressive for the last couple rounds previous to this, mostly because i was being a card rack. Vs this particular player i raised on the button a few hands ago, he called in BB and donked a TTK flop and i folded J8.

My stack: 22,500
Villains stack: 16,700

Blinds 200/400 with 50 ante. 8 handed table, i am UTG+2 with T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: 2 folds, i raise to 1100, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets 2000, CO raises to 5400, hero?

[Exitonly]

Think you have to shove vs the guy you described. Calling would leave a very awkard situation on the turn, and folding vs aguy thats show willingness to play back at you, and can tell that you've been aggressive seems weak. Vs a nit i'd fold obv.

edit: plus backdoor spades and straights if he actually has a set!

[green100b]

This is a different situation than raising from the button versus a blind defense so I think that scenario is useful info, but tough to apply. The board is pretty innocuous so he either has air or has you beat. Do you have the image of tight upfront or still just aggressive? If you think the player in question is capable of laying down A-10, and will put you on JJ or better then it's a good push. I think that is more likely to work live than online.

[JayPez]

Good hand bond tough spot. the krux of the hand is how often he is raise/folding his hand

Ok lets give him a flop raising range

77+,33,ATs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,Ato 7.1%

not all of these are good cards to raise, but he may be bad and raising to find out where he is at.

Say hes gonna call your push with…

TT+,77,33,ATs,98s 3.8% which your 20% equity against

54% of the time hes calling.

Pot = 3200 + 2000 + 5400 = 10600

So 46% u win 10600
So 11% u win 3200 + 15600 = 18800
43% u lose 1000 + 16700 = 17700

4876+2068-7611 = -687 chips

so basically he needs to be folding around 50% of the time to the push to make it profitable.

I’d probably say push because the % chance hes playing back at you makes it +ev imo.

[Bond18]

IMO, his flop raise size tends to polarize his range between hands that are insta calling and folding, as his raise looks like an amount that gives him room to fold or to try and trap me in. I think though, on this board if he had some monster he might also be flat calling sometimes as well. This tends to make me think shove is better.

[ianisakson]

I would only shove here if he's capable of folding better Tens' JT/QT/KT/AT just because of how you described the raise. He was either betting enough to get away from a 2nd pair/weak top pair hand or to trap you in.

The hand you gave us where he donk bet tells me he's not concerned with trapping so I don't think that if he were trapping he'd flat call you.

As to what I'd do, i'd probably fold. He left himself room to fold worse hands, he's almost never going to fold a better T once he puts the flop raise in, and he could very well be trapping with a big hand.

[gobboboy]

I agree with Bond that his hands are super polarized to hands that are instamucking because they are air or snapcalling because they're the nuts in his mind, so shoving to get him to fold medium sized hands is bad. People don't raise with marginal hands enough in tournaments to make shoving with marginal holdings for value profitable.

If you think he's aggressive enough, calling and then donk/calling the turn could be profitable, but if he's never giving you more chips here unless he's way ahead then I like folding.

[NHFunkii]

this is a pretty easy fold I think

[bluesbassman]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Bond that his hands are super polarized to hands that are instamucking because they are air or snapcalling because they're the nuts in his mind, so shoving to get him to fold medium sized hands is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, but might he want to shove to make worse hands fold, like KQs? Seems the pot might already be sufficiently large to make this worthwhile. In some spots I like to do this when I think I have the best but vulnerable hand, and there is already enough in the pot.

(A fold might still be best here, but I'm just pointing out the consideration.)

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Bond that his hands are super polarized to hands that are instamucking because they are air or snapcalling because they're the nuts in his mind, so shoving to get him to fold medium sized hands is bad. People don't raise with marginal hands enough in tournaments to make shoving with marginal holdings for value profitable.

If you think he's aggressive enough, calling and then donk/calling the turn could be profitable, but if he's never giving you more chips here unless he's way ahead then I like folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

i too agree w/ his range being polarized(ie i doubt he raises JT here), but why on earth would you shove or call and donk the turn given this read? i would call and check the turn and re-eval, and based on his timing and bet size determine if i'm ahead or not. if you shove the flop, he just folds his bluffs and instacalls his better hands(assuming our read is right and he doesn't raise KT and then tank, then eventually call a shove)...and if you call and donk the turn, same thing - he shoves the better hands and folds the bluffs. especially on a board this dry it's not like w/ these stacks we have to shove now to avoid a draw checking back the turn.