99 raise or shove?

[NYTyler]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t69398)
MP2 (t92665)
MP3 (t31239)
CO (t200785)
Button (t40221)
SB (t23457)
Hero (t31376)
UTG (t15631)
UTG+1 (t25762)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t1200, MP3 calls t1200, CO calls t1200, Button calls t1200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?</font>

Now I sort of like to raise here but not shove and reevaluate on the flop but there are also a ton of people in this hand and I don't want too many callers. I think shoving here is the best option. I think I must have the best hand. Anyone help me out and give me a little insight as to the best way to play this one?

[Rocco]

How about just check and play for set value? A shove would probably pick up the pot, so that's fine too. A meaningful raise is about 1/3rd of you stack and likely to put you in a tough position if the flop brings overcards and you have to play it OOP. So call &gt; shove &gt; raise...

[brad2002tj]

I probably check here 70% of teh time and push 30% of teh time, depending on reads. I would worry mainly about mp2.

[Iwineverypot]

I agree with dunk..too many of you are advocating checking for set value because it's the "safe" play but I also feel that it is so much worse than shoving that it's a BAD play. None of you advocating checking are giving any numbers, and Dunk's analysis is pretty much spot on - you're crushing their ranges so even if called you're probably a favorite, and despite that a shove here usually just takes down this already large pot without a showdown, getting chips EVERY time is much better then getting chips only the very few times you flop a set...

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

I HATE 99 and go broke with 9s and 10s more than any hand I think so take it for what it's worth.

That said... I'm shoving here. So much dead money in there and me a coin flip when someone calls... I'm drooling at getting it all in here...

[guilt_trip]

Shove Shove Shove

Unless you have a read that the MP2 constantly limps big hands then check. But shoving here is so standard. There's 6600 in blinds alone (antes prob make it more like 8000) so shoving is ez

You'll probs get called by alot worse hands than you think. You'll get called by a bunch of lower PP assuming you're trying to steal the pot and even some broadway hands. At this stage in the tourney you HAVE to attack the dead chips and limpers. This is a very easy (and +EV) way to build your stack, and shoving hands like KQs and 77 is perfectly fine here too

[SuperUberBob]

I see three options here.

1. Check and play for set value: The conservative, safe play. You can see the flop for free and get paid off huge if you flop a set. Otherwise, you fold and only lose your BB (which was already in there anyways). You basically have a chance for an infinite return on your hand.

2. Raise to 9000, shove any flop: This is the more risky play. If you get called, you're out of position, possibly against multiple opponents. You probably won't get re-raised all-in by any of the limpers. This is the worst of the three options because you commit a large amount of your stack to the pot and let your opponents catch up to you.

3. Shove preflop: This makes things real easy for you. The problem is that your stack here is a bit too large to make this move. You probably have the best hand and if you're called, it's likely that you're at worst a slight favorite in the hand. If you want to gamble and build a monster stack, this is a good option.

check &gt;&gt; shove &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; raise

[Dunkman]

I think playing for set value could possibly have a slightly higher chip expectation than shoving PF, but shoving PF has much much much lower variance, and with a 26 BB stack we need chips now. That's one thing you're looking for in tournaments, not the 1 in 10 play that wins a monster pot, but plays that consistently pick up chips so you can go deep on a regular basis. With the pot equal to 25% of our stack I'd jam this all day.

Actually I gave playing for set value way too much credit. Lets say every time you hit a set you stack someone. Still, you're winning 125% of your stack 1 time in 9, where as shoving nets you 25% like every time, and I'd argue it nets you even more when you get called because your hand is so far ahead of their ranges. Shoving has a lower variance and a cEV that far exceeds checking, it is clearly the best play.

[NYTyler]

Yes that is true too...I guess my thinking was that if I raise really I could only shove because as you said I don't want to be in a tough position...but if I just raise to 8K-9K then I get an early caller and then another...I don't want to play this hand multiway. So if I don't call then shoving really seems to be the best option. I am pretty sure I have the best hand here. I had not gotten too many hands as of late and felt a little desparate to double up. YOu don't think I should exploit the marginal advantage here and try to get it heads up where I am a 6/4 or 11/10 favorite?

[ssnyc]

ugh...readsless I just see a flop...I see it as a shove (Which I like) or just call and see flop...raise may get multiple callers and we are OOP