Weather Effects in Football

[KUJustin]

Does anyone here have some insight or data into how weather affects a football game? I'm specifically curious about soggy conditions and rain versus dry conditions.

Obviously, there's a ton of "conventional wisdom" out there, but it seems like the conventional wisdom is wrong a little more often than it's right.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I just read an article which tracked the run/pass breakdown by month, and there were no significant differences at all

I would also guess that bad fields brings teams closer together - good teams prefer good weather

[Jack of Arcades]

Well, dome teams are usually terrible in cold weather games.

[UATrewqaz]

I would agree that the better teams would want better weather.

Bad weather promotes unusual mistakes and higher variance, which benefits the worse team usually.

Bad weather also really slows the game down typically, which benefits the slower team more, because while it slows both teams down, it slows down the faster team more so.

[Gregatron]

I agree with the consensus about weather = variance, thereby helping the less talented team.

Another factor: muddy and rainy conditions tend to favor defenses, and hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. It's easier to pass block relative to run block when it's muddy, and fumbles are more common in rain/mud, and while dropped passes are as well, the consequences are obviously not as severe.

[CieloAzor]

Concerning statistics about dome teams and warm weather teams (Tampa Bay especially) playing poorly below certain temperatures...you have to remember that regardless of climate, these are all road games to begin with. I don't know if there's any value in those stats, but I'm inclined to believe playing on the road is responsible for most of those streaks that are quoted, and variance plays a large role as well.

[Jack of Arcades]

Brag: I did the research for this article.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

you picked a sweet picture too

[KUJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Another factor: muddy and rainy conditions tend to favor defenses, and hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. It's easier to pass block relative to run block when it's muddy, and fumbles are more common in rain/mud, and while dropped passes are as well, the consequences are obviously not as severe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was the case, but you hear the casual fan say the opposite VERY frequently.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
you picked a sweet picture too

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy that wrote the article (Aaron Schatz) is a Pats fan... heh.