Six Nations betting thread

Fishmonger · #1 01-18-2007, 02:07 PM

For those in the US, the Six Nations is the annual European International rugby competition.

Just one bet for now, more once the tournament starts.

Ireland @ 3/1 to win the Grand Slam(win tournament undefeated). 5 units.

I'm Irish and usually don't bet their games but this was too good a chance to pass up. They are on form, are starting to show real depth in their squad, and the main threats (Wales/France/England) are having squad/coaching/suckage problems respectively. They have the two hardest games(France/England) at home.

If anyone else here bets rugby I appreciate any input.

thehotspur · #2 01-18-2007, 03:07 PM

I was told that bet is awful because if you put on an accumulator instead to win all the games you get 5/1, or did when I was told a few days ago.

Fishmonger · #3 01-24-2007, 11:58 AM

Scotland to beat England 4/1 2 units

England are something of an unknown with the new coaching setup and have been having trouble getting everyone together for training because of injury worries.

Cusiter might be fit for Scotland (he's playing for Borders this Friday) but even without him they shouldn't be this big an underdog. They've gotten some good players back that weren't available this Autumn.

The England team will fail to gel and Scotland will come through with the upset often enough to make this a good bet.

Ireland (-3) to beat Wales 1/1 2 units

Not much to say on this one. Only big player Ireland is missing is Horgan but they still have two top-class wingers in Hickie and Trimble. I don't think this will be that close.

Italy to score 85 or less through tournament 5/6 3 units

That's less than 17 a game. Italy are improving constantly but are still not great. They'll do well to get 14.

hedgie43 · #4 02-01-2007, 01:30 PM

Scotland +11.5 looks good. Wilkinson is coming back from injury with only half of a club game as rehab and has Farrell outside him who is fairly new to rugby union. Balshaw and Moody are also out injured.

Lori · #5 02-01-2007, 02:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was told that bet is awful because if you put on an accumulator instead to win all the games you get 5/1, or did when I was told a few days ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You won't be able to do an acca on these (unless you find a retarded bookie) because one result has an impact on another.

Edit: 7/2 available on Betfair.

Lori

Fishmonger · #6 02-02-2007, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Scotland +11.5 looks good. Wilkinson is coming back from injury with only half of a club game as rehab and has Farrell outside him who is fairly new to rugby union. Balshaw and Moody are also out injured.

[/ QUOTE ]

I took the moneyline rather than the points because I think that if Scotland lose it's likely to be by a big margin. It's whether England manage to come together that will make the difference.

hedgie43 · #7 02-02-2007, 12:50 PM

I don't see England blowing them out. Ashton seems to have picked players to play a defensive and kicking game. Wilkinson at flyhalf and two good defenders in the centers, but Tindall is definitely not the attacking threat he was in 2003 and Farrell is a bit slow at his age. Have you seen an O/U on this?

Fishmonger · #8 02-02-2007, 01:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see England blowing them out. Ashton seems to have picked players to play a defensive and kicking game. Wilkinson at flyhalf and two good defenders in the centers, but Tindall is definitely not the attacking threat he was in 2003 and Farrell is a bit slow at his age. Have you seen an O/U on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

44.5 at totesport

Fishmonger · #9 02-03-2007, 08:13 AM

France (-13) to beat Italy 1/1 1 unit

A late one. Laporte is still dicking around with the selection somewhat (no Yachvilli at scrum-half is dumb) but at least he has a fly-half playing at fly-half this time. The rest of the back division should be enough to really hurt Italy, who have made some poor selections themselves: Pez should start at fly half and De Marigny is flat-out awful.

GBV · #10 02-03-2007, 09:58 AM

Generally speaking I'd be wary of backing the Irish because they punch above their weight in public sentiment. They will be heavily backed in Dublin and London (more Irish in London than Ireland), and are often the neutrals favourite because of the attraction of celtic romanticism. This doesn't cut the other way-for example the English don't bet against the Irish on general principle the way the Irish do against England.
That said, there may well be individual exceptions if you know your rugby, but that goes against basic strategy.

Finally, someone said the bookies would be stupid to offer an accumulator on the series of matches. Without checking this out, I'd be surprised if at least one bookmaker doesn't allow this. CP is easier with British bookies. That said, the chance of the contingency-related rule being invoked is relatively high.