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  #361  
Old 11-09-2007, 01:17 AM
52s 52s is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

[ QUOTE ]
Getting rid of JR was dumb. The guy was the least liked and doesn't have any ties to anybody. Sounds like the perfect guy to drag along with your alliance.

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True, and even moreso in the current Final 3 format. A person is needed that won't syphon votes away from the other two, and JR was the likely shoo-in to not get much if any jury votes.

It feels like Todd is flip-flopping around worse than the guy from Survivor: Amazon that went out in 3rd (Rob? If I remember correctly, that one Jenna won) with no discernable kill order, and this was by-far the worst choice of elimination of the three available options.

At the very least make James use one of his idols... hell, the goof didn't even bother to bring the idols with him. They'd have eliminated a monster threat. Or finish off Pee-Gee since she's liable to stir [censored] up.

JR? As edited? Who was gonna join him? If anything, he'd have to join a Pee-Gee-led group.

And now with JR gone, Courtney has no need to tow the Todd company-line. Her work is done, she can now flip-flop at free will with Frosti.

Seriously, Denise/PG/Erik/Courtney/Frosti can still happen, and Todd will not be able to do a damn thing about it.

OTOH, one could say JR should've clammed up and not confronted James until he had a more solid back-up plan in place. If James gets bounced, well, James gets bounced and JR would just have to go on knowing the idols are gone and he'd have to come up with a different plan. Or PG gets bounced and then he can confront James post-vote and have a couple days to get something going. Confronting James hours before TC wasn't the best of moves either.
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  #362  
Old 11-09-2007, 01:34 AM
pegusus pegusus is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

I was a huge James fan and am still a fan but I'm beginning to sour on him a bit just in his general attitude and thinking. I don't know if he is smart enough to realize how golden his situation is and that he only has to win 3/5 immunities MAX to be in the final 3, and furthermore that his tribemates know this and at this point will try to get rid of him at the first possible instance
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  #363  
Old 11-09-2007, 01:49 AM
What? What? is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

I figured JR would be alot smoother than this. To his defense though this seems like the biggest group of losers in survivor history. Hard to fault him for not fitting in.
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  #364  
Old 11-09-2007, 02:20 AM
jedi jedi is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if he is smart enough to realize how golden his situation is and that he only has to win 3/5 immunities MAX to be in the final 3, and furthermore that his tribemates know this and at this point will try to get rid of him at the first possible instance

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Survivor isn't as easy as everyone thinks it is. Though James is the strongest physically, there will be other challenges where things James isn't good at will come into play, like balancing in tonight's challenge.
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  #365  
Old 11-09-2007, 02:48 AM
pegusus pegusus is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if he is smart enough to realize how golden his situation is and that he only has to win 3/5 immunities MAX to be in the final 3, and furthermore that his tribemates know this and at this point will try to get rid of him at the first possible instance

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Survivor isn't as easy as everyone thinks it is. Though James is the strongest physically, there will be other challenges where things James isn't good at will come into play, like balancing in tonight's challenge.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea I wasn't saying that winning immunities is like easy or a given or anything, moreso that like in every season no one is really every truly safe and would like to win the immunity every single week once it gets to final 10 to be 100% safe and have piece of mind. This season however, given possession of tn wiwo idols and it being down to final 8 already, if he can 3 then he is 100% set and even 1 or 2 would be huge. There have already been two challenges that weren't suited at all for James's strength so there is no surprise he didn't win either, but going forward you'd have to think that there will now be challenges that will play more on James's endurance and physical strength. I mean he will have to win at some point and given his golden situation there really has never been a player who can assure themselves a final spot w/o having to win every idol is what i meant.
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  #366  
Old 11-09-2007, 03:06 AM
dankhank dankhank is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

taking james out tonight had to be the right play. i really don't understand the flip to jrb. it may have just been inertia that won out - todd knew the right play strategically was to get rid of james, but it would've taken too much heavy lifting. once you float the jrb possibility within courtney's earshot, she is sold, and apparently, amanda wasn't gung ho about the idea either. however i predict this mistake will cost todd the game.

the only edge todd/amanda have over james, is they have that key two person rock solid alliance for the final 3-4. i thought james had that with denise, but that no longer appears to be the case.

worst case scenario after voting out james would be a 4-4 split with jrb/denise/erik/pg on the other side.

i do like that jrb finally worked with pg and erik... too little too late but they were smart enough to finally find each other

frosti will have to win a lot of individual immunities, but if he could drag courtney to the final two with him... well played. also, from frosti's pov, and thinking in terms of winning the jury, he really should've considered a frosti/peegee/erik and then swing two of courtney/jrb/denise into a new power bloc. i think he wins a jury vote against any of those people except maaaaybe denise, but she would be the odd one out in the final five there too. seriously, the more i think about this, the more i think frosti should've made a daring strategical play this round to take control of the game.
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  #367  
Old 11-09-2007, 05:46 AM
MegaFossil MegaFossil is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

[ QUOTE ]
taking james out tonight had to be the right play. i really don't understand the flip to jrb. it may have just been inertia that won out - todd knew the right play strategically was to get rid of james, but it would've taken too much heavy lifting. once you float the jrb possibility within courtney's earshot, she is sold, and apparently, amanda wasn't gung ho about the idea either. however i predict this mistake will cost todd the game.

the only edge todd/amanda have over james, is they have that key two person rock solid alliance for the final 3-4. i thought james had that with denise, but that no longer appears to be the case.

worst case scenario after voting out james would be a 4-4 split with jrb/denise/erik/pg on the other side.

i do like that jrb finally worked with pg and erik... too little too late but they were smart enough to finally find each other

frosti will have to win a lot of individual immunities, but if he could drag courtney to the final two with him... well played. also, from frosti's pov, and thinking in terms of winning the jury, he really should've considered a frosti/peegee/erik and then swing two of courtney/jrb/denise into a new power bloc. i think he wins a jury vote against any of those people except maaaaybe denise, but she would be the odd one out in the final five there too. seriously, the more i think about this, the more i think frosti should've made a daring strategical play this round to take control of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Todd ever had much of a shot at winning this even if he had voted James. Admittedly I've only watched about a third of the Survivors, but it seems like every time the guy who does a lot of scheming and back stabbing has zero chance at winning, much less making the Final 2/3. You have to scheme and strategize without making it obvious what you're doing. Yul was the master at this from what I've seen. He was always one step ahead of everyone, but still came off as a genuine, honest guy. I would be shocked if Todd won this. I think the most likely candidates are James or Amanda. Amanda always has herself in powerful alliances, while directing most of the planning on Todd. Kind of like that Asian chick did with Yul, but Todd has made too many enemies, unlike Yul, so Amanda could win it.
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  #368  
Old 11-09-2007, 05:50 AM
MegaFossil MegaFossil is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

Does anyone else think Jean-Robert was basically a clone of that Rob Cesternino guy who was on two Survivors in the past?

Both thought they had the game completely figured out, but both seemed to "overplay" the game so to speak.

The key to this game is to make it look like you're not scheming. Those two made it obvious what they were trying to do, and it usually just turned people against them.

It seems like there are two type of players who ultimately win Survivor:

A. People who fly under the radar all season and happen to luck into the win. This is more of a crapshoot than anything.

B. People who are able to play the game well and form strong alliances without making it obvious that they are constantly scheming.
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  #369  
Old 11-09-2007, 08:53 AM
Setzy Setzy is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

I think Amanda, whos name never comes up, is one of the strongest players in this game. She's buried herself into a fairly deep alliance with Todd and is just "flying under the radar", as the above poster mentioned some winners do.

In addition to her Frosti has succesfully made good alliances with both tribes, which I think will enable him to flip-flop for whatever will benefit him most at a crucial part of the game. I also think he's played somewhat "honestly", at least up to this point, and could potentially win a whole lot of votes if he gets to the finals.

Of the remaining players, here's my predictions:

Todd is a huge schemer and that label is probably going to get him into some serious trouble down the road (his original tribe is somewhat fractured now), so I expect him to be one of the first gone if his alliances break.

James presents himself as a very likeable guy and hard worker but definitely lacks the social skills to form alliances, which are as important as any immunity. He'll get pretty far, but he won't be there at the end.

Denise will find herself in some compromising situations because the tribe "left her in the dark" about voting, and she expressed some loathing about not being picked for the reward challenge. She'll probably fall out of favor with Todd but find herself some new "friends" with Erik and Pee-Gee.

Erik's girl got voted off the week before, so all he's left with the remnants of the old tribe and probably looking to form a new alliance. I would imagine he may solicit James for making a new alliance, and trying to get them in with Pee-Gee and whoever she's trying to recruit.

Pee-Gee is another huge schemer, and I think she'll have the same downfall as Todd. She realizes the others see her as a threat, and it's really hard to to shed yourself of the bullseye when it gets on your back.

Courtney doesn't seem to have much of a mind for the game, as shown by her pretty lackadaisical "I don't care" when Todd asked her who she wanted to vote for. I think she has the capability of flip-flopping to a stronger clique if Todd is voted out. I don't think she'll get that far though.

Frosti got traded to the other tribe and actually got close enough to them to get in their circle of trust (really by stumbling into the Immunity idol when Todd was looking for it out in the open like a moron)...I really think he's got a real shot at getting really far, because both Pee-Gee and Todd think they can get his swing vote for whoever they scheme up to leave that week.

Amanda is quiet but definitely seems to be the strings behind the puppet (Todd), if you know what I mean. I think she lasts longer than he does and gets pretty deep in the game, probably in the final 4.

My best guess, Frosti gets to the final 2. But I don't know who else I'd pick...maybe Erik if he can win an Immunity or two. If not him, Amanda.
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  #370  
Old 11-09-2007, 10:02 AM
SpaceJanitor SpaceJanitor is offline
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Default Re: Survivor China OFFICIAL THREAD

[ QUOTE ]
Did Jean-Robert REALLY have to use a poker analogy? Really?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, another poker analogy could be: He was all in and at risk several times with marginal hands already and he finally didn't win at showdown. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I was rooting for Bellande, but I'm not unhappy to see him go, he was an unpleasent factor in the show. And like most players voted out, he also was delusional about his own strength in the game... If the producers of Survivor were looking for a poker player, why not pick someone who has some social skills? (well, the obvious answer is, they didn't find anyone else, but still...)

Something I would have LOVED to see in this episode: Someone from Todds group defecting and betraying Todd, by telling James about the plan of voting him out, telling him to use the idol and lobbying with PGs group to vote Todd out. Seeing Todd's face at tribal council if that had happened would have been almost as satisfying as Jaimes stupidity last week. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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