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#1
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Re: local pub parlay cards
10-teamers have the best expectation.
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#2
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Under what assumptions? I get that 4-teamers are better if every game is a coin flip.
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#3
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Assume >53.6% probability.
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#4
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Re: local pub parlay cards
I know what expectation is. My point is that you are wrong if every game is won with probability 0.5. Since OP makes it sound like he can do better than this, and since you generally know what you're talking about, I figured you assigned some other probability and answered based on that.
This is known by several names, including "exposition," "answering the question," and "not being a jackass." Please tell me a condition under which 10-teamers have the highest expectation. (edit: okay, you did) |
#5
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Re: local pub parlay cards
OK, you're right, if every game has p=.50, then your least bad option is a 4-teamer. It's also slightly better to buy a scratch-off ticket than to drop a dollar bill in a flask of sulfuric acid, but that doesn't mean either option is advisable. I always make the mistake of assuming you people are interested in advantage play.
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#6
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Well, that condition obviously matters a lot, because that's what determines if OP should be playing this or not. So just saying "10-teamers have the highest expectation" doesn't really help all that much without elaboration.
I was interested in how good you had to be in order to make this +EV, and like you, I get that it's about 53.7%. 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. So yeah, if you're able to win at all, you'll do best playing 10-teamers. |
#7
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Re: local pub parlay cards
so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev?
also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis. |
#8
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521. |
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