88, smallish pot, catch the bluff?

[Rainclouds]

Fairly standard situation, but I'm curious about the opinions.

Villain is a solid TAG.

EverestPoker - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 2: DOC-Q ($27.80)
Seat 3: pilz ($97.15)
Seat 4: Villain ($176.75)
Seat 5: HERO ($97.55)
Seat 6: TarielBrasil ($8.85)
HERO posts the small blind of $0.50
TarielBrasil posts the big blind of $1.00
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
DOC-Q calls $1.00
pilz folds
Villain calls $1.00
HERO raises to $3.50
TarielBrasil folds
DOC-Q folds
Villain calls $2.50
*** FLOP *** [7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
HERO bets $5.00
Villain calls $5.00
*** TURN *** [7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
HERO checks
Villain checks
*** RIVER *** [7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
HERO checks
Villain bets $15.00
HERO ....?

Call or fold?

[theflyingcow]

Err you're getting a little under 1:2 to make the call...meaning he'd have to be bluffing over a third of the time strictly by the math. If you have a read that he tends to bet big on whiffed draws, then sure. Otherwise I see myself letting this one go.

[Jamougha]

He's mostly not bluffing. If he had a draw he would bet the turn.

[mertzo]

Yeah if he was bluffing he would have bet the turn

[Rainclouds]

Actually, I reversed the perspective in this hand. I was the villain holding 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I was happy to get a free river, but found it a good bluffing spot when he checked it to me. I pretty much put him on either a low PP or AQ/AJ and I expected him to fold that to a $15 bet.

Since I was surprised to see him call, I wanted to check if my bluff was credible.

[Womble]

[ QUOTE ]
He's mostly not bluffing. If he had a draw he would bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Surely draws would want a free card here?

[ikestoys]

honestly i call here like it is my job, but people are always trying to float/play back at me...

basically, the looser you are, the more likely you call

[fees]

call he has nuffin