U.S. Women's Soccer vs North Korea

[NajdorfDefense]

identifying -333ml on USA in that game as a poor wager had nothing to do with luck, my friend.

[llabb]

Both correct. NK is solid, but the US draw, and resulting loss on the win wager, was partially the "luck" of both rain and Wambach getting injured and not coming back quickly/not subbing in.

Of course, any good soccer analysis would have accounted for Wambach's injury status, although prior injury status was not the reason she left the field, so it's still luck in a sense.

That being said, with all things considered, Naj's statement about it not being a good wager is correct. The US is likely to be overvalued in general for all matches.

Naj, you betting the other World Cup games too?

[NajdorfDefense]

Not yet. Watching and waiting.

[Pokerlogist]

One betting strategy in women's soccer is to bet on the team that looks the most like guys. In the US'a bracket that ranking on masculinity is: 1 NK 2. Nigeria 3.USA 4 Sweden. That would've meant correctly bet on NK and Nigeria vs the line. USA vs Sweden is close since both teams have a slew of "girly" players but the bet edges towards the US. The US would not be a good bet in most games. If this sounds sexist, sorry. No offense meant.

[MAC-N-TODD]

usa -200 vs. sweden?

[Limpfold]

Sweden lost their best midfielder also their best player Hanna Ljungberg had injury problems all season and isn't at 100%.
Frankly their team isn't as good as it was a year or two ago.
I think USA is a good bet here but I can't decide if ML at -190 or -1 -107 is the better play.

Edit - USA is -175 at CRIS (maybe better at some other books)

[silentbob]

I suspect the line against Nigeria will be -500 or -600. Probably not worth betting under any circumstance.