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#61
11-18-2007, 07:15 PM
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Re: I flipped 100 coins
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy). Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)? I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right. [/ QUOTE ] I dunno what the actual answer is, cuz I suck at math. but the reason guessing 49% is wrong, is because the more hands you play the closer your win % gets to being 49, meaning the % chance of you being an overall winner approaches 0% (since you are losing 51% of the time). Your chance of being a winner after 1 hand is 49% 
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#62
11-18-2007, 07:16 PM
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Re: I flipped 100 coins
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy). Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)? I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right. [/ QUOTE ] Think in terms of lossrate. Every hand you play has a certain expected value. The total EV of all these hands adds up to an enormous total lossrate, and on top of the total lossrate is a variance in the form of a standard deviation.
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#63
11-18-2007, 08:01 PM
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Re: I flipped 100 coins
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I've got a math question I was thinking about recently but am not smart enough to figure out my self (plz don't make fun if it's really easy). Let's say I play blackjack and I am 49% to win every hand. If I played blackjack every weekend for 2 hours for the rest of my life, what would my chances at being a winner at the end be (if you need the figures, which you probably don't, let's assume I average 50 hands per hour and play 4000 hours in my life)? I guess the answer is 49% but that doesn't seem right. [/ QUOTE ] it's not 49%, it's effectively 0. edit: math deleted b/c i did it wrong and don't feel like doing it again. The conclusion is correct though. The degenerate approach of making a -ev bet all at once is significantly better than betting piece by piece. Of course, the reverse is true if you're the one with the edge.
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#67
11-18-2007, 08:18 PM
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Re: I flipped 100 coins
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if it's what you're implying or not, but you seem to be stating the gambler's fallacy. It doesn't even out, on average. At flip 23 where you're down 6.5 points off expectation, you should expect to be 6.5 points off expectation, on average, for the rest of eternity of flipping. You approach your expected equity relative to your sample size, not in absolute terms. So say you're 5 flips off after 20 flips. That's a 25% difference! You should now expect to always be 5 flips off, but the percent will decrease as the sample size increases. So if you run at expectation for the next 80 flips, you'll still be down 5 flips but it will only be a 5% difference. As you increase your sample size you obviously get closer and closer to 0% difference (in other words running at expectation) but you'll always be down 5 flips. [/ QUOTE ] this is all needs to be said, i dont think u had to flip a coin 100 times to realize that variance is more present in the short term.
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#68
11-18-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: I flipped 100 coins
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure most of us have heard of the "Gambler's Fallatio." [...] People know that a "fair woman" will give head as often as refuse to. So when they watch a woman give head-head-head-head-head they KNOW that the woman is "overdue" for refusal, and they begin to expect that refusals will come more often for awhile to "catch up," because that's what women do. As savvy gamblers we should know that women, dice, and cards have no memory. They don't know that they've cheated you the last six times, and they don't feel that they owe you a score now. They ALSO don't know that they've let you get sucked out the last six times, so they're not going to punish you this time. Each woman is an independent being, and should be judged on its own merits, rather than on the past history. [/ QUOTE ] FYP - gamblers fellatio
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